The storm that blew into the Sierra Nevada earlier this week was ferocious, bringing frigid air, gusts of wind and whiteouts and dropping 6 feet of new snow on Donner Summit in a matter of days. Weather forecasters predicted the storm well in advance, and it came as expected. The heightened avalanche danger during the storm was also known. On Tuesday, Sierra Avalanche Center’s forecasters issued their daily forecast, which predicted high avalanche danger: “Widespread areas of unstable snow and numerous avalanches are expected today,” reads the first line of the report.

There were no surprises about the size and impact of this week’s storm. And that’s exactly why no one expected such a massive and heart-wrenching tragedy to occur in the middle of it.

Late Tuesday morning, during the worst of the storm, an avalanche struck a group of 15 backcountry skiers who were on their way home from the Frog Lake Backcountry Huts, near Castle Peak. The avalanche was about the size of a football field, said Chris Feutrier, supervisor of the Tahoe National Forest, in a press conference Wednesday. 

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Eight people died and one more remains missing and is presumed deceased, making it the deadliest avalanche in the United States since 1981. It occurred about a mile away from another avalanche that killed a snowmobiler in January. 

A staff member for the Sierra Avalanche Center digs into the snow to study the layers on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026.

Beyond the sheer scale of the loss — all those lives — Tuesday’s avalanche is difficult to comprehend for other, simpler reasons that don’t add up. This group had experience. They were skilled backcountry skiers. They hired guides from a respected company who were trained with the highest certifications for mountain guiding and avalanche education and knew this area well. There was shelter; even amid high avalanche danger, the Frog Lake Backcountry Huts are a safe haven, a place to wait out such a storm. It’s also common practice to travel in smaller groups in the backcountry, spacing out skiers and keeping eyes on one another, specifically so that if an avalanche occurs, those who were not in the slide path can act quickly and launch  a rescue.

Don't let Google decide who you trust.

So why did this group venture out in this storm? And how did so many people die? 

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There are no straightforward answers, at least not yet. The California Division of Occupational Safety and Health, or Cal/OSHA, has launched an investigation into the guiding company, Blackbird Mountain Guides, and the avalanche. But even after officials have investigated and conclusions have been made, it’s unlikely we’ll ever make sense of such a sickening event. 

And so we’re left with a shock wave barreling through communities in Truckee, Lake Tahoe and the Bay Area, where many of these women lived when they were not spending time in the mountains. Three guides are also among the dead and missing. The families of six of the women killed came forward with a group statement on Thursday evening. According to the statement, they were mothers, wives, athletes and a part of a group of eight close friends who’d made longtime plans for this trip to the Frog Lake huts. 

Snow-covered trees on a hillside during a snowfall in Truckee, Calif., on Feb. 18, 2026.

Vehicles drive down California state Route 28 in near-whiteout conditions in Kings Beach, Calif., on Feb. 19, 2026.

“They were experienced backcountry skiers who deeply respected the mountains,” the statement said. “They were trained and prepared for backcountry travel and trusted their professional guides on this trip. They were fully equipped with avalanche safety equipment.” 

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One common refrain among avalanche education instructors is........

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