War

Yes, the Midterms Were About the Iran War

New polling shows that voters were animated by opposition to the war—and want more congressional oversight.

Matthew Petti | 11.9.2026 9:21 AM

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(Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Newscom)

Republicans have been debating the causes of their midterm election losses last week, which gave Democrats a lead of at least a 36 seats in the House of Representatives. One faction of the Trump administration, led by Vice President J.D. Vance, argues that the decision to attack Iran was politically fatal. Another faction, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is arguing that Republicans actually have a mandate to defeat Iran.

New data suggests that Vance is right. According to a poll conducted right before the election by YouGov on behalf of the Institute for Global Affairs, 44 percent of Americans said that they were less likely to vote for a candidate who supported the war, compared to only 13 percent who said they were more likely. And 53 percent said that Congress should have a final say over when the war ends, compared to 29 percent who chose the president. Iran may not be the only reason the Republicans did poorly, but it certainly seems to be a major one.

The poll adds to a growing body of evidence that the war was a major electoral loser. A majority of Americans opposed the war from the beginning, and........

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