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The world's battery boom depends on a supply chain that could snap at any time

Cheap batteries could lose their value proposition if mines can't produce the minerals they need. A shortage could upend whole industries

Lucas Aguayo Araos / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Cheap batteries are transforming the power grid. They store solar power during the day and release it after dark, replacing natural gas. But they're made from lithium, nickel, and cobalt, minerals that take years to mine, and the mines can't keep up.

The world added 46% more battery storage in 2025 than the year before, and a 45% price drop pulled demand for those minerals even higher. Lithium demand alone rose almost 30% in 2024, triple the previous decade's rate, driven by batteries and electric cars. Announced mine projects would cover only about half the lithium the world needs by 2035 under current climate pledges, according to the International Energy Agency, and the gap is expected to widen through the 2030s. If mines can't close it, cheap batteries won't stay cheap.

Because mining takes so long, the world depends on lithium that's already being produced. Most of it goes to Chinese refineries before it reaches a battery factory, giving one country control over the supply. Recycling could eventually offer an alternative, but until the first generation of grid-scale batteries wears out, plants won't be able to recycle for at least a decade. So the cost of batteries will depend on the efficiency of a supply chain that a delayed mine, export restriction, or trade dispute could disrupt.

The nearly two-decade wait for each new lithium........

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