The brain relies on the past to predict the future. When a prediction error occurs, the brain updates.

The brain evolved to predict, learn, and adapt.

Too much uncertainty overwhelms the brain's ability to play and learn.

Co-authored with Sarah Bergenfield

As thousands of bits of data are transmitted up from the body, the brain builds and then relies on predictions. For example, if you were training to run a marathon you would build your capacity for sustained effort, tolerance of discomfort, and persistence despite fatigue by gradually adding mileage, weight, reps, and minutes to make the body strong and the task familiar. Muscles would grow, mitochondria would multiply, connective tissue would adapt, and the cardiovascular system would become efficient. You would prepare your body to perform optimally by predicting likely conditions rather than specific outcomes.

In the interest of energy conservation, efficiency, and feasibility, the brain does this too. Instead of worrying about specific outcomes, of which there are an endless number of possibilities, it uses experience—the past—to predict what is likely to happen and prepares accordingly. As long as any given prediction aligns with incoming sensory information, the brain will remain in a state of coherence. Nothing will need to happen urgently. However, when an unexpected thing happens, as it will, the brain needs a plan B. Accordingly, even while it expects the past to repeat, the brain also keeps checking incoming sensory data for new information.

While a full account of this complex process is beyond our scope here, the core idea is simple. The brain constantly observes what follows what, registers how those conditions feel in the body, generates........

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