Israeli voters are choosing between competing approaches to war and security, while Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank continue to bear the consequences.

Three years after Israel’s genocide war on the Gaza Strip, Israel’s elections scheduled for 27 October are approaching. These elections carry particular significance, not only because they are the first since 7 October 2023, but also because they come amid a prolonged war that has spread across multiple fronts and reshaped the political and security landscape inside Israel and across the region.

Over the past three years, Israel has opened fronts in Gaza, the West Bank, southern Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Iraq and Qatar, targeted sites in several countries, and targeted dozens of leaders from various states and organisations.

In return, Israel has paid a heavy military, economic and political price. Thousands of soldiers have been killed, while the country has faced significant military and economic strain and a major decline in its international standing. At the same time, political, social and religious polarisation has intensified within Israeli society. Crises have also emerged around the military, reserve forces and weapons stockpiles, alongside growing international calls and pressure to limit arms supplies to Israel.

Amid this complex regional situation, the Israeli elections have emerged as a major turning point that could determine not only Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future, but also the shape of the war and Israeli policy toward Palestinians and the wider region in the coming years.

Netanyahu and the decisive election

For current Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, these elections appear decisive. He is not only fighting to retain his position and form a new government, but also waging a political battle over his legacy since 7 October and his responsibility for the greatest blow Israel has suffered in its history, which plunged the entity into an existential crisis.

At the same time, the opposition is seeking to hold him politically responsible for the failures of 7 October, the management of the war, the issue of Israeli captives, and the military and economic strain Israel has endured over the past three years.

Each side is therefore using its electoral cards to win over Israeli voters. But the war itself has become one of the most important of these cards, and perhaps the most influential, because security remains central to the thinking of Israeli voters.

War as an electoral tool

Israeli decisions related to the war cannot be separated from domestic political calculations. Every military operation, every announcement about targeting a leader or taking control of an area, and every claim about defeating Hamas or restoring deterrence can become political material inside Israel, presented to the public as a security achievement.

This is one of the key paradoxes of the upcoming elections.

For Netanyahu and the Israeli right, it is not enough for the war to continue. It must also appear to be a war producing results. Military escalation can therefore become a means of creating a political image of strength, control and deterrence, particularly as the elections approach.

This does not necessarily mean that every Israeli military decision was made for electoral purposes. Rather, it means that electoral calculations have become part of the political environment in which decisions about war, peace and negotiations are made.

This issue becomes even more significant as the elections approach, particularly if opinion polls show Netanyahu’s bloc losing ground or failing to secure a parliamentary majority.

The latest Israeli opinion polls tracked by outlets and institutions such as Israel2026, Haaretz, The Jerusalem Post, Globes and The Economist indicate that Netanyahu’s bloc are on course for between 50 and 53 seats, compared with 55 to 59 seats for the Israeli opposition. According to The........

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