Despite official assurances, the US submarine program is falling well short of its own targets, raising serious doubts about whether Australia will ever receive the Virginia class submarines promised under AUKUS.

From the media announcements, all is well, we are ‘ full steam ahead’ on AUKUS (quite symbolic; a submarine at full speed is relatively noisy and less aware of its surroundings!)

The reality from the waterfront is that the US president of the day in 2031 will not have any surplus submarines and not be able to legally sign off on the sale of the first of three to five Virginia class submarines to Australia under today’s laws legislated by the US Congress.  This decision will leave Australia dependent on the delivery of the yet to be designed, British SSN AUKUS, that is also not progressing well. More of that in Part II.

How is the US side of the deal going?

The Pentagon’s review of the AUKUS Pillar 1 program has been delivered, and we are told it provides ‘changes to put AUKUS on the strongest........

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