H5N1 is spreading along southern Australia and is likely to move inland, reach vulnerable island colonies and infect more wildlife. Monitoring will be critical to understanding the damage.

The lethal H5N1 strain of avian influenza is rapidly spreading along the coast of southern Australia, where it has killed thousands of wild birds and infected at least two long-nosed fur seals.

So where will it travel next, and what damage might it inflict? Much is uncertain, especially because many of Australia’s animals and ecosystems are so unlike those in other parts of the world.

But monitoring is vital if we are to understand the magnitude of this H5N1 outbreak and protect our most vulnerable species, including the threatened Australian sea lion.

It’s difficult to know how Australia’s current H5N1 crisis will unfold. But we can make four predictions, based on existing knowledge.

Waterfowl will carry the virus inland

Infected waterfowl from coastal southern Australia – such as ducks, herons and swans – will soon carry H5N1 to inland wetland systems. The timing is terrible.

In coming months, the hot and dry conditions created by the El Niño climate pattern will cause those wetlands to shrink. This means vast numbers of waterfowl, already debilitated by scarce resources, will congregate at the few remaining water sources. Weak flow and high densities of dead and dying birds will turn this water into a virus-contaminated soup, leading to further........

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