Treasury’s Net Overseas Migration forecasts don’t match current visa settings and trends. Migration may fall less than predicted – and stay higher for longer.

In December 2025, Treasury decided to hold its pre-election Net Overseas Migration (NOM) forecast unchanged at 260,000 in 2025-26; 225,000 in 2026-27 and 235,000 long-term. It has also provided some more details on these forecasts in its December 2025 Population Statement. But can we rely on these forecasts or was Treasury under pressure to leave these effectively unchanged?

NOM in 2024-25 fell to 305,600 after peaking at 538,340 in 2022-23 and 429,160 in 2023-24. It fell well below levels being suggested by various parts of right-wing media and think tanks, but was above the initial Treasury Budget forecast for 2024-25 of 260,000. There is zero chance it will rebound to the levels right wing media and think tanks insist on suggesting (i.e. up to 550,000 in 2025). But will it now bottom-out at around current levels or will it fall significantly further as Treasury is forecasting, particularly for the long-term?

Treasury says in its December 2025 statement that:

“NOM is forecast to decline further in 2025–26 and 2026–27, driven by fewer migrant arrivals and an increase in migrant departures. However, departures are expected to be lower than in the 2024 Statement as migrants on temporary visas are departing at lower rates than experienced in the past”.

That effectively means Treasury is forecasting NOM arrivals to also be lower than it forecast in its 2024 population statement. Compared to NOM in 2024-25, Treasury is now expecting NOM arrivals to fall in 2025-26 by 10,000 and then fall again in 2026-27 by another 5,000; and NOM departures to increase by 45,000 in 2025-26 and by another 25,000 in 2026-27.

Treasury’s forecast decline in NOM arrivals in 2025-26 and again in 2026-27 would need to take place against the background of three new measures that will add to NOM arrivals.

First, the Government has announced a 25,000 increase in the student planning level for 2026 compared to 2025. As the planning level relates only to students doing higher education or VET courses, a large portion of the 25,000 will likely add to NOM student arrivals (including students who have........

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