Every empire of the world has proved mortal. Will Durant

Every empire of the world has proved mortal.

It’s been a while since I had enough substance to write about the Gulf Conflict. The US-Israel duo and Iran stared each other down in a stalemate that they called a ceasefire, but one which was occasionally disturbed by an odd bombing run. Negotiations are now underway with a 60-day time frame to work out a modus operandi on how to co-exist in relative peace. However, the question we come back to is why the US (Trump) started a war with Iran in the first place? It has since been described as a war of choice – one that could have been avoided. How it is seen by the US Senate is another proposition – they are calling it, first, illegal, and second, foolish, as quoted by Senator Tim Kaine in his presentation. Coming back to the question of why it was started in the first place?

One view is that Israel influenced US policy and manipulated the US President into getting to be part of the conflict. Israel, with its ‘Greater Israel ’ plans and, as stated by the US Ambassador to Israel, that Israel is from the River to the Sea, explains Israel’s interest, but what does the US get out of such a war? At the time, the idea sold to the US was that of trade corridors and China’s growing economic dominance. The so-called India-Middle East- Europe Corridor (IMEC) that included Israel was apparently conflicting with the Belt and Road Initiative that China was already executing. So as to make IMEC a reality, control of the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula was necessary, but Iran stood in the way. This was stated publicly by Netanyahu in the United Nations, where he presented his Global Corridor Plan, the IMEC, and how Iran was a disruptive element towards it.

To make Iran a compliant state, the whole conflict began with a regime change operation, first beginning with currency manipulation through the UAE, followed up by staged street protests and riots. When this did not meet expectations, the process escalated into massive bombing runs by the US and Israel to decapitate the leadership and provide the necessary fillip to a general protest by the people against the regime. It backfired, and Iran stood even more unified than it ever was. The basis of Iran’s successful handling of these massive attacks has been explained in their military and technical sense already in the Corridor-Wars series and as such need not be repeated here. The ultimate confrontation, which gradually involved all the Gulf States, the closure of the Hormuz Straits, and the invasion of Lebanon by Israel, eventually led to a series of negotiations.

Though in my own reckoning, I feel that the ceasefire, the MOU agreed to, and the 60 days allowed for working out the method to implement and enforce all that has been agreed to, is an encouraging step forward, but I have serious reservations. These reservations pertain to Israel not getting what it set out to do, i.e., destroy Iran and pave the way for a Greater Israel. Iran stands cohesive and much stronger than before, and as such, Israel feels the ceasefire is premature and much too soon. However, for Israel to continue this conflict till it realises some of its goals, it has to have the US as part of its integral plan. Israel’s military capacity is limited to air strikes and nothing more where Iran is concerned, and where they have used ground troops in South Lebanon, there are reports of serious attrition they can ill afford. Thus, US moral, physical, and financial assistance is a must.

For such assistance, Israel has substantial influence in the US Congress – 95% of the House. US Congressmen, now, cannot find it within themselves to publicly state that ‘US first ‘, and instead prefer to state Israel first’, in an unprecedented display of perfidy. It’s not entirely their fault and is

more a consequence of the US political process having evolved in this direction. In 2016, Trump and Hillary Clinton were presidential candidates. It was then widely believed that never before had US citizens been reduced to electing/selecting a President out of the two most hated people in history. The political system is broken, and Israel has taken full advantage of it, exploiting its greatest curse – funding-inspired lobbying campaigns for political benefits. Thus, we are where we are, in this curious case of the tail wagging the dog – the US supporting anything Israel does. It has resulted in $30 billion only in 2025,........

© Paradigm Shift