Throughout history, South Korea has recorded the lowest fertility rate ever across all nations. By 2023, the country’s total fertility rate had dropped to 0.72, meaning that only 72 children can be born to 100 women in their lifetime, while it takes a total fertility rate of 2.1 for a population to remain stable. In essence, South Korea is nowhere near that number and is the only OECD country to record a birth rate lower than 1.0 since the year 2018. The year 2024 saw a small increase in the rate to 0.75, the first positive change over the past 8 years.

For quite some time now, the narrative has revolved around social and economic issues: an ageing society, a small workforce, numerous pension expenditures, and not enough taxpayers. While these are serious problems, 2026 has shown us that we cannot solve the population dilemma merely by means of social policy. South Korea has an extremely militarized border with North Korea, which means that it still lives in a state of war since the ceasefire agreement was signed back in 1953. The US contributes 28,500 troops to the country to maintain peace. Thus, the national army is shrinking as a result of the collapse of the birth rate, which is going to worsen in the future.

The Numbers: How Severe the Decline Actually Is

In the year 2020, South Korea saw the largest rise in its population to 51.8 million, and since then, things have started to go downhill. There were 360,757 deaths versus 242,334 births in 2024, marking the fifth year in a row of more deaths than births. As per the government estimates, the expectation is that the population is going to go down to below 36.2 million in the year 2072, meaning a decrease of around 30 percent over one lifetime.

The issue of aging is noticeable as well. The portion of  South Koreans aged 65 and older exceeded 20 percent for the first time in 2024, making it the first time in the country’s history when it is designated as a “super-aged” society, according to the UN demographic indicator. By 2030, a quarter of all South Koreans will be aged 65 and older. The dependency ratio, which is defined as the portion of children and older people relative to the working-age population, continues to lose its appeal for the Bank of Korea, which has issued a warning about the possibility of enduring recession sometime after 2040 in case the fertility rates do not improve.

Numerous cultural and economic dynamics cause these numbers. Rising housing demands in Seoul, an incredibly fierce educational system that imposes enormous expenses on families, constant gender disparity in the workplace, including costs for mothers, and changing social tendencies of younger generations that move away from early marriages and births lead to a breakdown that continues to persist despite countless government incentives. Across Korea, the average age of women at their first marriage has gone up from 25.3 years in 1995 to 31.6 in 2024. In South Korea, marriages always occur before births, unlike many Western countries, with marriage rates increasing by 15% in 2024, but amounting to 44% below the 1995........

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