Bangladesh stands at a precipice, its political landscape scarred by the violent upheaval of 2024 that toppled Sheikh Hasina’s long rule. What began as student-led protests against entrenched authoritarianism has morphed into a chaotic transition under Muhammad Yunus’s interim government, marked by institutional fragility and a surge in communal tensions.

Over 127 million voters prepare for February 12, 2026, when parliamentary elections coincide with a referendum on the July National Charter – a reform package promising checks on power, including a bicameral parliament, term limits for the prime minister, and caretaker governments during polls. Yet, this vote arrives amid deepening divisions: the Awami League, the nation’s founding party, remains banned, its leaders exiled or imprisoned, while Islamist forces like Jamaat-e-Islami have resurfaced with unprecedented vigour.

The interim administration, sworn in August 2024 after negotiations involving the army, students, and parties, aimed to prosecute abuses from the Hasina era and orchestrate fair elections. Instead, it has overseen a period of insecurity, with over 645 incidents targeting minorities in 2025 alone, fuelling an exodus of liberals and Awami supporters. Law enforcement has weakened, allowing vigilante violence and Islamist mobilisation to flourish. The referendum, touted as a path to democratic renewal, faces accusations of unconstitutionality – bundling complex reforms into a single yes-or-no question without room for nuance. Government officials openly campaign for approval, blurring lines between state and advocacy.

This moment echoes Bangladesh’s turbulent history, from its 1971 liberation rooted in secular Bengali nationalism to cycles of military rule and Islamisation under past regimes. The 2024 uprising sought justice, but the vacuum has empowered radicals, with Jamaat-e-Islami’s student wing sweeping university elections and the party now leading an 11-party alliance. As alliances fracture – Jamaat breaking from its longtime BNP partner – the referendum risks entrenching polarisation. Far from uniting a nation weary of autocracy, it threatens to legitimise forces that could unravel........

© News18