Opinion | Will Vijay Be The HD Deve Gowda Of Tamil Nadu?

Vijay’s nascent party, Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the new kid in the block, seems to have peaked rather prematurely.

HD Deve Gowda served as the 11th Prime Minister of India from June 1, 1996, to April 21, 1997. Leading a United Front coalition government supported by the Congress party, his tenure lasted 10 months and 21 days. His Janata Dal (S) barely had 40 seats out of the 545 Lok Sabha seats. Inder Kumar Gujral served as the 12th Prime Minister of India from April 21, 1997, to March 19, 1998. Heading a United Front coalition government supported by the Congress Party, his short, less than one-year tenure is best known for the “Gujral Doctrine," a set of foreign policy principles prioritising peaceful, non-reciprocal cooperation with neighbouring countries. Both the governments came for the barbed comment—tail wagging the dog. These two were not isolated instances of the Congress playing on the greed and ambitions of smaller party leaders to do backseat driving.

Earlier, Chandra Shekhar served as the 8th Prime Minister of India from November 10, 1990, to June 21, 1991. Heading a minority government with Janata Dal (Socialist) supported by Congress(I), his tenure lasted only seven months. He managed a severe foreign exchange crisis by authorising the shipment of India’s gold to London, taking a huge risk inevitable in the skies. And much earlier, Chaudhary Charan Singh served as the 5th Prime Minister of India from July 28, 1979, to January 14, 1980. His tenure lasted 170 days, during which he led a coalition government but never faced Parliament as Congress (I) withdrew support before the confidence vote. All cases of tail wagging the dog with the connivance and betrayal of the Congress which preyed on the ambitions of politicians to lead up the garden paths.

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One fears there could be an encore this time around in Tamil Nadu should the upcoming April 23, 2026, assembly elections throw up a hung assembly. Thespian Vijay’s nascent party, Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the new kid in the block, seems to have peaked rather prematurely. But it still remains the key X-factor. Vijay holds significant appeal among first-time and Gen-Z voters. Sceptics aver that he could well be another Prashant Kishore who failed to get even a single seat in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. That said, even they concede that while he may not win a significant number of seats, given the insurmountable difficulties encountered by huge crowds translating into votes and votes into seats, he would end up with a handful of seats nonetheless. He is cast in the dual role of voter-cutter and Kingmaker with the distinct possibility of becoming King himself, a la HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral.

In a close to call contest, parties such as TVK can make or mar things for the dominant parties who have fallen short of the majority by the skin of their teeth. He would be assiduously wooed in that scenario. Both the SPA, DMK-led alliance, and NDA, AIADMK-led alliances would fall over themselves to bring him to their camps, but it is entirely possible Vijay might bring one of them to his camp with him as the Chief Minister. Yes, it could again be the case of tail wagging the dog. Human beings, more so politicians, are known for nursing a king-size ego. And in a one-man party, the founder is the King and his is the last word. In the run-up to the elections, he has made his distaste for both DMK and BJP clear. Which means he may sidle up to the AIADMK government sans the BJP. To be sure, it won’t be a smooth sailing. Ask Deve Gowda. The opposition would rock the Vijay boat and he is bound to flounder, but who doesn’t want 30 seconds of fame? With engineering a split and the resultant horse trading becoming that much more difficult with a two-thirds switch requirement, deadlock in administration is inevitable.

BJP has often tried Operation Kamala to overcome the two-thirds switch requirement. It consists in large-scale resignations to bring the government in the saddle on its knees with a minority status and counting on winning the seats vacated by those resigning to be able to form the government. That would not be an easy task unless dollops of cash are offered to hustle the sitting MLAs into resigning and assuring bulk of them seats this time round fighting on the opposition symbol.

Tamil Nadu then is bracing itself for an exciting finish on 4th May when the results would be announced.

The writer is a senior columnist. He tweets @smurlidharan. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.

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