Andrey Kortunov: “For the Conflict to End, the Sides Need to Negotiate Some Compromises”

We present to you an exclusive interview with Soviet and Russian political scientist and public figure, candidate of historical sciences, and expert of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Andrei Vadimovich Kortunov, for New Eastern Outlook.

– Andrey Vadimovich, the bombing of Iran by American and Israeli forces has now been going on for more than two weeks. Tehran is launching retaliatory strikes, including against American bases in Middle Eastern countries. The death toll is already in the hundreds, and the level of escalation is only increasing. Is it possible that the conflict could expand with the addition of US allies to the military operation? And who has a better chance of winning?

– I think that at this point we can state that both sides are moving along the path of both vertical and horizontal escalation of the conflict. In particular, if we talk about the tactics chosen by the Islamic Republic of Iran, it involves striking not only directly at the nearest military installations of the United States or Israel, not only at the US naval forces stationed near the Iranian coast, but also at more distant American bases in the territory of the Gulf countries, at the energy and transport infrastructure of these countries, and also at commercial American facilities located there, for example, branches of American banks and offices of large American companies. Of course, all this leads to the Arab countries that have allied relations with the United States becoming, one way or another, involved in this conflict. Significant damage has already been inflicted on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, etc.

On the other hand, if you look at the American strategy, we see that Trump is trying to actively involve not only his regional allies in the conflict, but also his partners in Europe. In particular, Trump considers it necessary for the European members of NATO to take part in the operation to clear the Strait of Hormuz, apparently proceeding from the assumption that Europe, more than anyone else, is interested in ensuring that both Saudi oil and Qatari gas flow uninterrupted to European markets. So far, we see that the Europeans are ready to participate only in the defensive dimension of the military conflict; that is, they are ready to provide assistance in protecting American and Israeli installations in the Gulf countries from attacks by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. But they are not yet ready to participate in offensive operations, that is, in striking Iran itself.

Furthermore, as far as one can tell at the moment, the idea that Europeans, as well as the Japanese or South Koreans, would take some feasible part in patrolling the Strait of Hormuz is not generating much enthusiasm. Some countries seem in principle willing to discuss this idea, but in most cases Trump has encountered a clear reluctance on the part of his partners to engage with this issue, even though these partners possess some naval capabilities. Therefore, escalation is certainly happening, but this escalation has its limits.

– What should we expect in the near future – negotiations or an even greater escalation? How do you assess the position of the Arab monarchies? Will they really turn away from the U.S.?

– It seems to me that the potential for escalation will be limited not only by the positions of the countries that the Americans are currently trying to drag into this conflict, but also by certain physical constraints. For instance, the United States,........

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