Andrey Baklanov: “Iranians want to live normally like all other countries”

Professor Andrey Baklanov, Head of the Middle East and North Africa Studies Section at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats, and former Russian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, shared many interesting and highly relevant things in this interview. Some of his assessments were unexpected for us. We touched upon various aspects of the situation in the Middle East and tried – as far as possible – to understand what is happening.

– During the Iran-Israel conflict in October 2024, some experts supposed that the various actors in the Middle East did not want a full-scale war. One and a half years have passed since then; what is the situation like today?

–They were right. Regional actors still do not want a full-scale war today. On the contrary, they need an environment in the region that would promote dynamic economic development and attract investors to the cutting-edge technology sector. The wealthy Gulf monarchies have ambitious plans to build “cities of the future,” something that would be impossible during wartime.

But strictly speaking, for now, a full-scale war is not yet underway; the region is only just being drawn into one. There are medium-intensity military operations taking place, and they are mostly carried out at quite a distance.

Let us try to analyze the approaches of the parties involved.

We shall begin with Iran. I have visited Iran and know Ali Larijani and other leaders well. The delegations I was part of held substantive and frank negotiations with them. I also had the opportunity to speak with senior religious authorities, in particular during a visit to the holy city of Qom.

I got the impression that the Iranians truly do not want war. Moreover, they want something completely different, namely to make peace with the West and to live normally, like all other countries, despite the initially very harsh and, to be honest, not entirely justified assessments and key ideas from 1979.

Currently, they still verbally adhere to these key ideas, but in reality, the regime has undergone a very long process of modification, adapting its policy to the situation regionally and internationally.

This, by the way, also applies to relations with Moscow.

These relations started off poorly by sending the Soviet Foreign Ministry a very impolite, pressuring note containing various claims and demands. Iranian politicians at that time publicly asserted that Iran had two adversaries: “Satan in the West,” being the USA, and “Satan in the East,” being the USSR.

Moscow responded wisely, demonstrating its firm policy combined with a readiness for dialogue and a will to explain to the new leaders the importance of developing ties with our country and the real foundations of Moscow’s foreign policy. This approach bore fruit. The idea of “Satan in the East” became a thing of the past. First normal, and then advanced, partnership-based, good-neighborly relations emerged.

Now, for the most part, these individuals remain in power, and they have indeed managed to overcome certain psychological obstacles and make significant compromises. Today, they are interested in reaching agreements with the USA and the West in general, but Washington and the Collective West take such a tough and disrespectful stance that Tehran cannot agree to a deal without Iranian public opinion unequivocally deeming the terms humiliating. It’s important to note that Israel largely eggs the Americans on.

But the Iranians do not want to fight. Of course, their potential has grown significantly, and in some areas, for example, drones and cutting-edge missile technology, they have surpassed other countries in the region (incidentally, the most farsighted military specialists in the Middle East in terms of identifying promising military technologies are Türkiye and Iran). At the same time, the Iranians understand that their potential is not great enough to start a military campaign themselves. Besides, there isn’t really any strong motivation for it either.

Regarding accusations of their “hyperactive foreign activities” and reliance on Shia organizations and groups, this issue is artificially inflated by external forces. Tehran, under pressure and sanctions, is forced to resort to supporting and, to a certain extent, using foreign, so-called Shi’a structures. It must be admitted, though, that these structures operate rather independently, as Iran is not capable of fully controlling and directing their activities. So there is a great deal of exaggeration here. What conclusions can be drawn?

Iran does not want war, but the development of the current situation repeatedly pushes it in that direction. When you start to get bombed, a response must follow.

Now for the United States of America…Their actions in the Middle East........

© New Eastern Outlook