Tracking Japan On the International Arena

Following a convincing victory in the February 8 general election, the Takaichi government has significantly strengthened its position domestically. This consolidation is also reflected on the international stage, where Japan is increasingly confident in its relations with both allies and opponents.

Relations with the United States: tariffs remain

This exchange of pleasantries is meaningful ahead of her visit to the US, scheduled for the second half of March. The visit will involve discussions on the state of and prospects for developing allied relations, which have a number of issues, especially in the trade and economic sphere. Negotiations on the tariff problem have been ongoing for nearly a year and, seemingly, neared completion immediately following the elections in Japan. This was evidenced, for instance, by reports of an agreement on investment projects totaling $36.5 billion, which will be implemented by three leading Japanese companies in the United States. Overall, in the negotiation process, the Japanese leadership has committed to attracting over $500 billion in private investment into the US economy.

The first such project was successfully concluded a year earlier, namely the protracted process of Nippon Steel’s $15 billion acquisition of US Steel. Now, following the explosion at the US Steel plant in Pennsylvania last August, the question of what to do next plagues Nippon Steel headquarters in Tokyo. Nevertheless, even incidents like this are largely business as usual.

The US Supreme Court’s decision overturning Trump’s tariffs (with the possibility of their brief retention for 150 days) became an external factor of uncertainty. It only complicates an already difficult negotiation process. Itsunori Onodera, former Minister of Defense and a prominent member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, described the current situation using the unparliamentary word “mess.” It is likely that Sanae Takaichi will begin her upcoming visit to the US precisely by cleaning up this “mess.”

However, the agenda for her talks with the US President will not be limited to the trade and economic sphere. No less attention will be paid to the military and political aspects of the relationship between the two allies. Bilateral contacts in the defense and security sphere at the working level are maintained continuously. This concerns both the long-standing issue of relocating the US airbase from Futenma on Okinawa and the more significant topic of “China’s destabilizing accumulation and testing of nuclear weapons.”

Japan-China Relations: rising tensions

Recently, Japan-China relations have been overshadowed by a growing emphasis on military matters. This, in the author’s view, is a consequence of the objective and inevitable process of Japan’s “normalization,” i.e., the strengthening of its defense capabilities. However, Beijing perceives Tokyo’s aspiration to “become like everyone else” in the realm of national security as a revival of militarism. Such concerns have substantial grounds, given the complex relations between the two leading Asian powers over the past century and a half.

China criticizes Japan’s plans to revise its defense documents and actively discusses Takaichi’s statement on the Taiwan issue on the international stage. This statement was likely not an accidental slip, considering the Japanese Ministry of Defense’s plans to deploy air defense systems by 2030 on Yonaguni Island, located near Taiwan and part of the Ryukyu Islands.

The Takaichi government’s intention to lift restrictions on Japanese arms exports will also likely be negatively perceived by Beijing. In turn, China’s introduction of trade restrictions against 40 Japanese companies is also explained as a counter to Japanese militarization.

Against the backdrop of this overall negative dynamic in bilateral relations, Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi’s statement about “wanting to maintain contacts” with China has not resulted in concrete steps.

Japan’s other foreign policy partners

The significance of Europe for Japan’s foreign policy course has markedly increased since 2017, when then Prime Minister Theresa May visited the country. The recent meeting between Takaichi and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Tokyo on January 31 of this year confirmed the intention to develop bilateral relations in various spheres. Particular attention is being paid to defense cooperation –a joint project to develop a 6th generation fighter jet has been underway since the beginning of this decade. Prospects for its sale on the international arms market are already being actively discussed today.

Two years ago, Italy joined this project, and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Japan in mid-January of this year. There are also reports of Germany’s possible accession to the project. France, which has territories in the Pacific Ocean, uses this fact to establish contacts with the Japanese military. Also, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney plans to visit Japan during his upcoming trip to Asia. Considering deteriorating relations with the United States, Canada is playing a more active role on the international stage.

As for the prospects for restoring Japan’s relations with Russia, Prime Minister Takaichi has sent certain signals. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara also made a statement about the intention to exclude imports of gas supplied by Russia under the Sakhalin-2 project from the list of bans on purchasing Russian energy resources. This raises concerns among Japan’s G7 partners.

An important consequence of the potential restoration of bilateral relations – which is significant in itself – will also be the expansion of Russia’s involvement in all processes taking place in East Asia. This, in particular, could help de-escalate tense Japan-China relations. However, their problematic nature, which is almost fundamental, does not permit us to expect swift and radical success from any potential mediation. Nevertheless, if such an opportunity arises for Russia, it should certainly be seized.

Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the Asia-Pacific region

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