A Security Pact in the Middle East, Behind America’s Back Part 2

The four most militarily powerful Muslim-majority nations—Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and Egypt—are aligning based on strategic calculation rather than religious affinity. This development signals the emergence of a weaker America in the Middle East and a reordering of the great-power competition between the U.S. and China.

The Real Strategic Interests Behind Each Member

Each country possesses distinct motivations for participating in the alliance. Analyzing their respective capabilities (as discussed in Part 1) and strategic interests is essential for assessing the potential longevity and outcomes of this pact.

Türkiye is engaging in what Chatham House describes as “opportunistic hedging.” By reaching out to organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Türkiye seeks not only alternatives to alliances like NATO, but also increased leverage within them. Following its exclusion from the F-35 program in 2019 due to the acquisition of Russia’s S-400 system, Ankara aims to establish strategic partnerships that diminish its reliance on American approval. The KAAN fighter agreement with Saudi Arabia exemplifies this approach: if Riyadh acquires a fifth-generation fighter from Türkiye without American congressional oversight, it could fundamentally alter the political economy of U.S. defense exports. Additionally, Türkiye aims to deter Israeli military activity, particularly in response to Israeli leaders characterizing “Türkiye as the next Iran,” which Ankara interprets as a significant strategic warning.

Saudi Arabia is seeking strategic insurance. According to one analyst, Saudi Arabia enhanced its longstanding military relationship with Pakistan in 2025 to “complement the US’s decreasing Gulf deterrence and to contain Israel’s rising military assertiveness in the Middle East.” For Riyadh, this approach provides redundancy. While Saudi Arabia continues to value its relationship with the United States, it is simultaneously cultivating partnerships that mitigate its vulnerability to changes in U.S. policy. Notably, Riyadh has also engaged Pakistan to balance Türkiye’s expanding influence, incorporating Islamabad as a counterweight to Ankara.

Egypt‘s participation is influenced by its economic dependence on Gulf states and a strong belief in the existential importance of Red Sea security. Cairo receives approximately $1.5 billion annually in U.S. military aid, historically linked to its peace treaty with Israel. However, Egyptian policymakers increasingly regard Israel as an unreliable neighbor whose future actions may not align with Egypt’s interests. Recent conflicts in Gaza and........

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