Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and the Geopolitics of the Exit Strategy

When the house is burning, the arsonists are the first to explain that the smoke was part of the design: as Ukraine and the Middle East rewrite failure into master plan, the real geopolitical trick is not winning but controlling the narrative — and who gets left with the bill.

Trump and Putin may yet find common ground on finishing off the war in Ukraine, while threats to cut intelligence support and weapons supplies once again raise the question of whether Washington is serious, or simply playing another round of political poker.

Rumors of the Ukrainian government relocating from Kyiv to Lviv add another twist: could Lviv become the capital of what remains of a rump state, increasingly cut off from the Black Sea? Many reports are circulating that Western embassies were considering contingency plans to relocate staff to Lviv or eastern Poland should be the already dismal security situation in the capital deteriorate further. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said it had received no notification of such plans, and the EU ambassador stated that EU embassies remain in Kyiv.

The battlefield picture, the diplomatic maneuvering, and the mounting pressure for an exit ramp suggest that the old script may be running out of pages.

The uncomfortable question is whether, in reality, this war was lost a long time ago, with the fighting kept alive by political vanity, strategic inertia, and the money flowing through the machinery of conflict. The suspicion that Zelensky and some of his associates have their own reasons for keeping the show on the road is hardly going away, although allegations of personal enrichment require evidence, not just the familiar whispers about resale of weapons and money disappearing in every direction. Meanwhile, the CIA and other intelligence networks have their own institutional interests, and even a president who wants to change course may find that Washington’s machinery does not turn on a dime, if at all.

Looking for the exit?

The international situation is changing so rapidly that it provides more than........

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