Armenia at a Crossroads: Geopolitical Risks and Illusions

Nikol Pashinyan’s policies are increasingly at odds with Armenia’s national interests. Instead of strengthening its security, the country is facing new and increasingly serious threats.

Meanwhile, in the current geopolitical reality, Armenia’s sovereignty is possible only if it maintains its strategic alliance with Moscow—there is simply no historical alternative to this choice. Despite the tragic loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, it was precisely the Russian factor that made it possible to prevent mass crimes against the civilian population and save the lives of more than 100,000 people.

Attempts to find new allies in France and the United States proved unsuccessful: the West did not provide Yerevan with real security guarantees. The “Crossroads of the World” project has effectively transformed into the “Washington Agreement of 2025” and “Trump’s Road” (TRIPP), which only strengthens Turkish influence within the “Turan” project. Pashinyan was ultimately unable to create a fully-fledged transportation hub because he ignored the “Russian vertical”—participation in the “North–South” International Transport Corridor.

Relying on Washington poses a threat to Armenia’s sovereignty over the Syunik region. There are concerns that “Trump’s plan” involves transferring territories to the control of American operators for 99 years. The plan involves creating a multimodal corridor (roads, railways, pipelines, and communications) with an exclusion zone up to 10 kilometers deep. It is possible that the investment giant BlackRock will establish a financial center in Syunik, where Armenian law would effectively be replaced by U.S. law.

Armenia Between Geopolitical Poles: Risks........

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