The Third Gulf War: America’s Strategic Overreach and the Rise of a New Order

The US–Israel war against Iran is accelerating the decline of American global dominance, exposing strategic overreach and weakening its alliances. As the conflict reshapes energy flows and security dynamics, Russia and China are capitalising on the chaos to accelerate a shift toward a multipolar world order.

The Trump 2.0 administration is pursuing a ‘conservative internationalist’ foreign policy approach that contends that the US will now opt for personal interests – even at the cost of its allies. No matter who gets thrown under the bus, the so-called American national interest would be preferred under a zero-sum approach. From Venezuela to Greenland and now Iran, the US is acting like a bull in a China shop.

After illegally abducting Nicolás Maduro of  Venezuela – a move that was labelled as insanity by the masses – the confidence of the Trump administration was boosted in the sense that they could repeat this event anywhere in the world, i.e., change the leadership of a country with no questions asked: that’s what they did in Iran. People were surprised at the lack of a reaction by Russia when Maduro was captured. However, Russia was likely just waiting for Trump to make his next blunder, which could potentially become self-destructive for the US.

Lo and behold, the US-Israel joint military operation against Iran has set fire to the Middle East, becoming a strategic battle point that might actually cement the shifting of the world order from the West to the East.

On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched joint operations, named ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and ‘Operation Roaring Lion,’ respectively, against Iran. As a result of the ongoing war in the Middle East, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been martyred, along with top IRGC leadership. However, the war is still very much ongoing, as the Iranian regime under its “Mosaic” doctrine is inflicting heavy blows on Israel and the US military infrastructure in the Middle East. Iran has deliberately closed the Strait of Hormuz, which controls approximately 20% of the world’s energy shipments, allowing only like-minded nations and allies (including Russia and China) to transit through it.

In retaliation for US aggression, Iran is conducting missile strikes on the American military bases in the Gulf states, which has altered the entire war landscape. The war in the Middle East is no longer regionally constrained; rather, the whole world is under great economic shock. The end of this war, in one way or another, would decide the future of the upcoming world order. But one thing is pretty clear: the US grip over the international arena is now loosening at a much greater pace as the war in the Middle East rages on.

Russian Opportunism at its Peak

“Wars do not determine who is right – only who is left” (Bertrand Russell).

“Wars do not determine who is right – only who is left” (Bertrand Russell).

To pressure Russia and to end the Ukraine conflict on Trump’s terms, the Trump 2.0 administration started encircling the Russian Federation economically and politically. By imposing worldwide tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, in particular India, President Trump was trying to compel Russia to retreat. Likewise, exploiting the opportunity, President Trump concluded a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus – an area long dominated by the Russian Federation. Moreover, the US established a Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) in the region. Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad, who was closely allied with Moscow, was removed through external intervention and replaced by a puppet of the US. The abduction of Venezuelan President Maduro was also done on the pretext that Russia is probably not in a condition to militarily intervene there. But the war against Iran has reversed the entire US strategy in just a few days.

Russia’s strategic approach towards the Iran war is centred around three major objectives: to support the current Iranian regime, which is an ally of Moscow – especially because of Western brutality globally; to inflict economic blows on the US; and to further compel the Ukrainians to retreat and end the war on Russia’s terms. As for the first objective, even after the killing of the former supreme leader of Iran, the administration is intact, which means Russian support for Iran is ongoing. Second, as Iran is destroying key military facilities of the US in the Gulf states using cheap drones and missiles, this war is becoming too costly for the US. Third, as the US has shifted its defence deployments to the Middle East, Ukraine has been left alone, which provides significant breathing space to Russia.

Likewise, Trump’s strategy of pressuring Russia through cutting off its energy supplies to the world has turned out to be a failure. As Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, Russian oil is now the best alternative for Asia-Pacific nations. To control the ongoing surges in oil prices, the Trump administration has given a thirty-day waiver to India for buying Russian oil — a clear retreat from its tariff policy. Last week, the price of Russian oil that is used for taxation reached 6,105 roubles per barrel, which is 82% higher than the price on February 27, the day before the United States and Israel began their military assault against Iran.

Moreover, Moscow can supply its arms to Iran to fulfill Tehran’s ammunition shortage, which will further strengthen the Russian economy. Behind economic opportunities, the Middle Eastern states, in particular the Arab world, have sensed the US’s unreliability and are diversifying their partnerships, which means the degradation of US influence in the region. Moreover, Russia can be a suitable (more stable) alternative for the Gulf States. Additionally, Russia has also offered to mediate the ongoing Gulf War, which reinforces Russia’s diplomatic prominence in the region. This sense of strategic autonomy or diversification has also made serious dents in the tacit political build-ups of the US in the region, in particular TRIPP in the South Caucasus.

Shifts in Global Power

“It is important to ask ourselves, as citizens, whether a world power can provide global leadership on the basis of fear and anxiety.” (Zbigniew Brzezinski)

“It is important to ask ourselves, as citizens, whether a world power can provide global leadership on the basis of fear and anxiety.” (Zbigniew Brzezinski)

According to Power Transition theorists, wars ultimately decide the actual pattern of power transition from one side to the other. History is witness: After every major war, new realities have emerged in the international system. Whether it is the bipolar order after WWII or the unipolar moment in the post-Cold War era, wars have reshaped the global balance of power. The ongoing Third Gulf War has the potential to decide – or at least set the foundational principles of power transition from the West to the East. The current geopolitical order is marked by the rise of middle powers, and the Middle East is no exception. Gulf monarchies are now diversifying their defence partnerships, apart from the ones they have with the US. The US war against Iran has made them realise that American bases on their territories no longer serve the function of their security and defiance, and will not serve as a deterrent for foes of the US. Resultantly, both Russia and China now seem to be the best alternatives for Gulf states.

The war against Iran has turned out to be a complete failure for the US. Iran is not like Venezuela or Greenland. It has spent decades learning to survive and thrive under intense economic pressure from the West. The Iranian regime has created a domestic hierarchical order whereby, in the case of the absence of top leadership, its Armed Forces can still act firmly and according to their plans. Although a long-term war in Iran is not directly aligned with Russian interests, it provides imminent opportunities to be exploited and to make the West realise the mistake they have made. Both Russia and China are now gaining influence in the region and have emerged as the ‘Champions of the New World Order.’

Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs

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