Opinion | The Seats That May Hold the Key to Tamil Nadu In 2026 - Central, North, and Chennai

Updated: Apr 22, 2026 12:41 pm IST Published On Apr 22, 2026 12:41 pm IST Last Updated On Apr 22, 2026 12:41 pm IST

Published On Apr 22, 2026 12:41 pm IST

Last Updated On Apr 22, 2026 12:41 pm IST

In an earlier opinion piece, I had listed 13 seats in the southern and western parts of Tamil Nadu that could reveal definitive trends at the end of the day in determining the results of this assembly election face-off. This piece lists out defining contests in Central and North TN, including those in Chennai city. 

Central Tamil Nadu (The Delta Districts)

The DMK alliance won 39 of the 49 seats in the core and extended delta districts of the state. This is a traditional region of influence, and the party simply has to hold on to these numbers even as the AIADMK is determined to retake some of its agrarian strongholds. Vijay contesting from Trichy East and the Seeman factor are at play here, as are caste arithmetic, anti-incumbency, and ideological issues.

Obviously, the Vijay factor in a DMK bastion will be put to its most powerful test here because this is one of the two seats Vijay is contesting. It is a three-way battle between the incumbent MLA of the DMK, Inigo Idayaraj; a strong AIADMK candidate, G. Rajashekaran; and the TVK Chief, C. Joseph Vijay.

The Christian vote is higher than the state average here, and the Vijay versus Inigo face-off will decisively show three things:

Is Vijay taking away the DMK's Christian vote base?

Is Vijay taking away the DMK's urban vote?

While Vijay and the DMK are fighting it out, can the AIADMK smell a chance to retake seats that it once held and lost to the DMK after Jayalalithaa's demise?

The Trichy East battle is going to be one of the most closely watched in this election because of the Vijay factor and the extent of the impact it will have on the DMK in the urban centres of the delta districts. This could well show a trend that proves decisive by the end of the election.

Srirangam  (Trichy district)

Neighbouring Srirangam is also a traditional AIADMK seat, one that Jayalalithaa herself contested and won in 2011. The DMK won the seat in 2021 but has replaced the incumbent, Palaniyandi, with a new candidate, S. Durairaj. The AIADMK has fielded a former MLA who also served as the party's whip in the legislative assembly. The TVK has fielded a young greenhorn candidate, S. Ramesh, who is campaigning hard. This is a closely contested battle that will reveal if the TVK is hurting the DMK or AIADMK more. More importantly, it will show if the AIADMK remains resilient in a seat that is symbolically important to it.

The impact of Vijay in Trichy East will be felt here, and this seat will also show whether the AIADMK can retake its traditional strongholds lost to the DMK.

Mannargudi (Thiruvarur District )

This is the old DMK-Left bastion in the late M. Karunanidhi's home district of Thiruvarur. The incumbent is the state's industries minister, T.R.B. Rajaa, one of the most influential faces of the party. This seat is also erstwhile Jayalalitaa aide, who has been relegated to the sidelines, VK Sasikala's home turf.

She has split from her nephew, T.T.V. Dhinakaran - whose AMMK is with the AIADMK alliance - and is campaigning for her own party, the All India Puratchi Thalaivar Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AIPTMMK). Her party has struck an alliance with Ramadoss Senior's PMK faction and has fielded candidates in several seats.

While the splits in the AIADMK and the opposition make Rajaa's position even stronger, and he is clearly in pole position after winning the seat thrice, the........

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