May 27, 2026 12:10 pm IST

Opinion | The Quad Is Slowly Going Quiet - But For A Reason

Questions have grown with Trump's renewed contacts with Xi Jinping and ongoing uncertainty about US commitments in Asia.

Brig (Retd) Anil Raman Brig (Retd) Anil Raman Columnist

Brig (Retd) Anil Raman Columnist

The Quad is now diminished politically but, more importantly, strategically. The New Delhi foreign ministers' meeting reflected uncertainty over Indo-Pacific geopolitics. There was no leaders' summit, presidential theatre, or expansive rhetoric about democratic coalitions reshaping Asia. Compared to the Biden-era Delaware summit of 2024, which had political symbolism and visible presidential ownership, the 2026 meeting's optics appeared restrained.

This has fuelled commentary that the Quad is losing momentum. The move from leaders' summits to foreign minister meetings is widely seen as a sign of reduced American political engagement, especially under Donald Trump's more transactional approach. Questions have grown with Trump's renewed contacts with Xi Jinping and ongoing uncertainty about US commitments in Asia.

Focusing only on political appearances hides a key shift. Three developments matter most: China's changing strategy toward the US, America's dual-level policy approach, and shifting from mere talk to action on burden-sharing. Key takeaway: Structural changes, not just optics, define the Quad's transformation.

China's Strategy of Managed Equilibrium

The most important shift is China's. Beijing is moving away from ideological confrontation toward managed great-power accommodation with Washington. Chinese discourse now emphasises stability, predictability, and crisis management. Strategists increasingly describe this approach as a "stable equilibrium between two great powers." Importantly, China's posture is calibrated rather than conciliatory. The objective is not to eliminate competition altogether but to reduce the urgency of active balancing coalitions.

China does not need to dismantle the Quad outright; a gradual reduction in American strategic urgency may suffice. Beijing seeks to weaken Quad cohesion, lower its political profile, and encourage accommodation in Washington. If the United States moves from balancing to merely managing China, the political foundations of Indo-Pacific coalitions weaken. China's goal increasingly appears to be hollowing out balancing structures through great-power stabilisation.

This is precisely why the reduction of Quad summitry matters symbolically. The shift from leaders' engagement toward a foreign ministers' process reflects declining presidential emphasis on coalition management and alliance theatre. However, the same period has simultaneously witnessed the continued expansion of operational coordination beneath the political layer.

This operational growth highlights the second transformation: a shift in how American foreign policy works in the region. Key takeaway: US policy now operates on two distinct levels, separating political signals from strategic actions.

America's Two Foreign Policies

The United States increasingly operates through two partially distinct foreign policy systems simultaneously. At the........

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