Here’s the narrative: A shadowy, nefarious elite chose to open the U.S. to trade with China in 2000 and 2001, which sparked the loss of a very large number of manufacturing jobs and led to widespread deindustrialization.

Few narratives in the public square are uncontested — but this one comes close. It is held and advanced by Democrats, Republicans, the media, commentators, and economists.

And it is more wrong than right.

This is a graph of manufacturing employment. Its downward trend began decades before the "China shock," and the "China shock" did not change the trend. pic.twitter.com/DSn7WLgk6n — Michael R. Strain (@MichaelRStrain) August 18, 2026

This is a graph of manufacturing employment. Its downward trend began decades before the "China shock," and the "China shock" did not change the trend. pic.twitter.com/DSn7WLgk6n

— Michael R. Strain (@MichaelRStrain) August 18, 2026

From my latest Project Syndicate column:

Did growing US trade with China following the 2000 decision to permanently normalize trade relations and China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 lead to a large reduction in manufacturing employment? In their 2013 paper, economists David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson find that rising exposure to Chinese import competition is associated with a net reduction in US manufacturing employment of 1.5 million from 1990–2007. In work with Daron Acemoglu and Brendan Price, they find that up to 2.4 million jobs were lost through 2011 due........

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