In capitals around the world there is talk of a prolonged war between Iran and US–Israel and the collateral damage this will inflict on Sunni Arab nations in the Persian Gulf. Most of these nations have protested claiming neutrality, but many host US military bases on their soil and at least some were covertly in favour of the US action.

The war wasn’t showing any outward signs of abating at the time of writing, but it might end quite abruptly — before the end of March, if not earlier. This is because the world — the US included — has been plunged into acute energy-supply shortages and public opinion will likely pressure US president Donald Trump to do a volte-face.

Trump is scheduled to visit China from 31 March, and it is most unlikely that such a summit will take place while the war, where Washington and Beijing are awkwardly on opposite sides, is still on.

Crude oil prices have rocketed to levels not seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine four years ago, and unless the war ends and supplies resume through the Strait of Hormuz, the world could be in for the biggest oil shock ever.

Gas prices, too, have risen to a four-year high, with a force majeure shutdown announced by the world’s sixth largest producer—Qatar. Even releases from the IEA’s (International Energy Agency) emergency stockpile won’t help beyond a limited period. The world’s daily demand is an estimated 104 million barrels a day.

On 10 March, Trump’s social media post claimed the US mission was ‘very far ahead of schedule’ and ‘very complete, pretty much’. At a public event, he was heard saying “we are ahead of our initial timeline by a lot… we have taken out the........

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