Pakistan must decide how a revised NFC would treat population, poverty, revenue effort, inverse density and other needs before—not after—new claimants acquire constitutional shares.

[To be continued] Huzaima Bukhari, lawyer and author, has been Adjunct Faculty at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), member Advisory Board and Senior Visiting Fellow of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE).

Ikramul Haq, Advocate Supreme Court, Adjunct Faculty at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), member Advisory Board and Visiting Senior Fellow of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), holds an LLD in tax laws.

Part I exposed the false choice between new provinces and empowered districts. The next task is to replace territorial guesswork with a political census. This is not another headcount or a plebiscite improvised around a government map. It is a public, independently verified account of the demand, affected territory, functions, resources and constitutional consequences. Cartography should record a political settlement; it cannot manufacture one.

Ahsan Iqbal’s case begins with real failures: government is distant, service delivery is unequal and devolution has stalled in provincial capitals. His comparative arithmetic is less persuasive. The number of units in India, Afghanistan or China cannot establish an optimal number for Pakistan. These countries differ in constitutional status, population, fiscal powers, party systems and local-government design. A count of administrative units is not an outcome variable. It proves neither that fragmentation causes development nor that a larger province causes deprivation.

Comparative research supports caution rather than paralysis. The OECD’s extensive work on decentralisation finds that results depend on clear responsibilities, adequate finance, local revenue authority, administrative capacity, coordination, equalisation and public accountability. Partial decentralisation can produce unintended effects. The serious inquiry is not, ‘How many provinces do successful countries have?’ It is, ‘Which institution should perform each function, with what money, personnel and answerability?’

The first part of a political census must measure democratic demand. A commission should record resolutions of elected bodies, party commitments, civil-society evidence and properly designed surveys at district and sub-district levels. Hearings must include women, religious and linguistic minorities, labour, business, farmers and communities near proposed boundaries. A bare yes-or-no question is inadequate. People must distinguish demands for identity and representation from grievances about jobs, policing, municipal services or access to a provincial........

© Minute Mirror