With Iran’s “Land Bridge” fractured by the new Syrian leadership, Türkiye is not merely seeking influence; it is seeking to fill the strategic vacuum and secure its Blue Homeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine. Ankara views Lebanon as the final “missing piece” in the Eastern Mediterranean energy map.

With its declared ambition to be a significant regional energy player not only with Central Asian countries but also in the Eastern Mediterranean, Ankara rejected the 26 November Lebanese-Cyprus agreement signed by Presidents Aoun and Christodoulides, arguing that any deal without Turkish Cypriots creates “a maritime wall” that locks Türkiye out of the Southern Mediterranean.

Türkiye’s evolving strategy in Lebanon reflects a broader recalibration of its regional posture, one that extends far beyond its earlier engagement with Muslim Brotherhood-aligned networks. Demographic shifts have opened new avenues for influence, particularly as expedited citizenship for Turkmens subtly expands Ankara’s footprint. Meanwhile, Saad Hariri’s withdrawal from politics has created a Sunni vacuum that external actors increasingly seek to fill through demographic and political engineering. Dr Lina Marouf, Center for Middle East Demographic Studies, notes, “Demography has become the quiet battlefield of the Levant, and every expedited passport is a political message written in population numbers.”

Lebanon, long accustomed to competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia, now finds itself navigating a third axis of influence — one that blends soft power, humanitarian outreach, and calibrated political engagement. Türkiye’s approach is neither improvisational nor purely ideological; it is rooted in a broader ambition to redefine its role in the eastern Mediterranean and reclaim a measure of historical relevance. Understanding this emerging dynamic is essential for grasping the new balance of power taking shape across the Levant.

The “Sunni card”: Beyond........

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