The Trump administration has begun preparing a US strategy for the period following the end of the war with Iran, intended to guide its Middle East policy during the final two years of Trump’s term. US sources have outlined several principal directions under consideration. The first, and most important, is the creation of a regional alignment among US allies to contain Iran, with the United States acting as its guarantor. The second, which is structurally linked to the first, is the expansion of the Abraham Accords and normalisation between Israel and countries in the region, foremost among them Saudi Arabia. On the other side, countries in the region appear to be exploring entirely contradictory strategies, mindful of the transformations brought about by Israel’s war on Gaza three years ago and the unjustified war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran several months ago. The Mecca Collective Security Agreement, which brings together Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, likewise reflects this vision, which runs counter to the one being charted by Washington. Last Monday, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, likewise argued that “strategic autonomy is not merely a slogan, but a rational political choice” dictated by considerations of security and national interest. Two months earlier, Majed Al Ansari, adviser to the Qatari prime minister and official spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, justified this strategic autonomy by arguing that global developments require “a more comprehensive approach”. These statements also converged with Egyptian positions. In March, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty affirmed that his country was working to revive and activate the concept of Arab national security, and again raised the idea of a joint Arab force, arguing that any regional security arrangements imposed by external actors were unacceptable.

At the latest Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the organisation should build an environment of “common security”, and that “external forces” must be prevented from interfering in internal affairs and undermining regional stability. Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov outlined his country’s vision for a regional security system in the Gulf, reviving a Russian proposal first put forward two decades ago that envisages bringing the Gulf states and Iran together within a regional security framework as a means of addressing mutual concerns and implementing confidence-building measures.

Following the latest Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not rule out joining the organisation, alongside China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and other states. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are also associated with the organisation as dialogue partners. Days ago, steps began in Istanbul to transform........

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