Throughout Donald Trump’s political career, there have been those who have tried to explain or justify his decision-making as that of a master strategist.

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The president isn’t just two moves ahead, they claim, he’s already surveying his next opponent’s chessboard. But as his disastrous war with Iran spirals further out of control, does anyone still believe Trump has a single clue what he’s doing?

The conflict in the Middle East lays bare what has been obvious to many of us for years: that Trump, unlike any other politician, makes decisions based on instinct alone. He doesn’t consult his advisors, he doesn’t read his briefing documents, he doesn’t listen to counter-arguments, he only ever goes with his gut. At times, such impulsivity works wonders for him. The problem with wars, however, is that they require all the diligence and detail that Trump rejects.

From the start, the White House’s war aims have been all over the place. If it’s about destroying Iran’s nuclear programme, why did Trump claim last summer that it had been “completely and totally obliterated”? If it’s about overthrowing the Islamic Republic, why not launch a ground invasion? And if it’s about defending the right of ordinary Iranians to protest, why not intervene in January when anti-regime demonstrations were at their height, and before the mullahs murdered tens of thousands more of their own citizens?

Then there’s his approach to America’s allies. One moment, he’s complaining that Sir Keir Starmer is “no Winston Churchill” and saying he doesn’t need the help of Britain’s aircraft carriers, the next, he’s claiming he’s “very disappointed” that we’re not sending our minesweepers to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I am normally among Starmer’s harshest critics, but on Iran, he has been vindicated. How can Britain be expected to join a war when our closest ally refuses to explain what it’s for, how long it will last, and how its objectives will be achieved?

But perhaps the most obvious example of Trump’s wayward thinking is his approach to the energy crisis inevitably triggered by this conflict. Oil prices hit $119 a barrel at one point yesterday, and now, after Israel struck the world’s largest natural gas field, gas prices in the UK and Europe are also soaring. And what does the leader of the free world, the man who started this war, have to say about it? Have a read of his latest Truth Social post. It has to be seen to be believed.

Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Let me translate that for you. Donald Trump is admitting that America has lost control of its junior ally, that he still doesn’t understand that a regime like Iran’s will retaliate to such attacks, but that if necessary, he’s prepared to completely destroy the world’s largest gas field regardless of the implications on global energy prices. If ever conclusive proof were needed that Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing, this is it.

As we’re all now discovering, this war has implications far beyond the Middle East. The oil price crisis of 1973 led to a global recession. Something similar could well be heading our way. Ironically, Trump was elected in 2024 largely because of voters’ concerns about the cost of living. Yet between his disastrous tariff policy and now this disastrous conflict, the President seems determined to make matters worse, not better. Trump’s impetuous war has the rest of us over a barrel. It’s time to stop pretending he knows what he’s doing.

Listen to James Hanson on LBC on weekends between 4 and 7am.

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