In southern Lebanon, Israeli military activity is steadily expanding amid the ongoing war in Iran. Currently framed as a temporary security tactic, Israel’s move risks hardening into a sustained presence, a security buffer zone that pushes the boundary towards the Litani River or in the worst case, a renewed Israeli occupation. This is not without precedent. Israel’s presence in southern Lebanon between 1982 and 2000 also began as a security measure. It evolved into a long-term condition that reshaped local politics and entrenched cycles of resistance. Lebanon’s own trajectory makes the present moment more fragile. From the French mandate to the 15-year civil war, the country has experienced repeated phases of external intervention, violence and internal fragmentation. Weak state control, particularly........

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