It varied from an indulgent smile to a wry smirk. We remember the reactions both of us received to our initial estimates of the cumulative damage of the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, if it was carried out across the country. The SIR had led to a deletion of 65 lakh names from the voters’ list in Bihar. We calculated that a nationwide SIR could lead to a deletion of up to 10 crore names. No one believed us. We hoped that raising the alarm would act as a check and bring the eventual numbers down, as it did in Bihar. Now that we have nearly the final figures, the total deletions have surpassed our worst fears.

Last week, the Election Commission of India completed the release of the draft SIR voters’ list in all the major states. The draft rolls are yet to be released for Nagaland and Tripura. And the SIR is yet to start in Himachal Pradesh and J&K. Yet, the overall trends are now clear (see accompanying table). The actual number of deletions at the draft stage stood at 13 crore 37 lakh. The final impact will be a little lower, as the publication of the draft SIR list is usually followed by more additions than deletions. Taking the likely additions and the remaining states into account, we estimate that eventually the SIR will lead to over 11.5 crore deletions in India’s voters’ list.

Here is the big picture. At the time of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, India’s electorate was about 98 crore, almost the same as the adult voting-age population of 99 crore at that point. By the time the SIR is formally concluded, the total count of the electorate will drop to around 88........

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