It has been two years since hundreds of Hamas militants breached the highly fortified Gaza-Israel border using explosives and bulldozers, backed by a barrage of missile attacks on unsuspecting Israelis celebrating a Jewish holiday. In an operation codenamed Al-Aqsa Flood, the militants killed 1,200 Israeli citizens, including women and children, and abducted 251 people.

Within hours, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war — Operation Iron Swords — on Gaza, vowing to destroy the military and governing capabilities of Hamas, bring back all the hostages, and ensure Gaza no longer posed a threat to Israel.

While Hamas framed its attacks as a response to incursions and provocations by far-right groups in Israel that had become part of the government, it also had a geopolitical motivation: To thwart the US-backed normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hamas was also attempting to re-establish itself as the leading military force of the Palestinian resistance.

Hamas, however, completely miscalculated the scale, duration and ferocity of Israel’s response to October 7. It had expected an Israeli response along the lines of those to earlier attacks that resulted in aerial bombardments lasting a few weeks, with limited ground incursions, eventually leading to a ceasefire and an exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages.

What it also did not foresee was the personal motivation of Israel’s Prime Minister to continue in power to avoid facing political........

© Indian Express