Following Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack, Hezbollah launched around 5,185 strikes between October 2023 and November 2024 using rockets, missiles and drones towards northern Israel to tie down the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and demonstrate solidarity with Palestinians, displacing around 90,000 Israeli citizens. After months of low-intensity conflict, Israel launched Operation Northern Arrows in mid-September 2024, killing around 176 senior Hezbollah commanders, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, degrading its military infrastructure and establishing a buffer zone at five strategic locations in south Lebanon. Between October 2023 and December 2024, Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah killed around 4,000 people in Lebanon and 128 Israelis, that is, 45 civilians and 83 soldiers.[1]

Israel secured Lebanon’s assurances to prevent Hezbollah attacks and disarm the group after the 27 November 2024 ceasefire. Hezbollah largely upheld the ceasefire and focused on replenishing its arsenal. The IDF, citing self-defence, re-armament concerns and incomplete dismantling of infrastructure, retained five positions and conducted around 900 airstrikes between late November 2024 and February 2026.[2]

The US–Israel war against Iran since 28 February 2026 re-ignited full-scale conflict between the IDF and Hezbollah, prompting Israeli ground operations and expansion of military presence from five positions into a full security zone extending around 8–10 kms by mid-March 2026. Washington facilitated seven rounds of direct Israel–Lebanon talks between April and August, along with a trilateral framework on 26 June 2026. The framework envisaged the verification of Hezbollah’s disarmament, infrastructure-dismantling, phased IDF re-deployment and transfer of territory to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Pilot zones would facilitate coordinated IDF withdrawals and LAF deployments, state monopoly over arms, reconstruction and return of civilians.[3] Hezbollah, as the principal armed actor driving the conflict, was not a party to the agreement and rejected the understanding, creating serious obstacles in implementation.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s call for restraint and the June 2026 trilateral agreement, Israel seeks to preserve operational freedom, an escalatory posture and its security zone in south Lebanon. Israel, viewing Hezbollah’s degradation as integral to weakening Iran’s deterrence architecture, has exploited renewed hostilities since March 2026 to target Hezbollah’s weakened military, financial and domestic stature, enforce nation-wide disarmament, and sever its strategic link with Iran. Israel’s sustained military pressure is accompanied by diplomatic engagement with Lebanon.[4]

Israel has advocated indefinite control of the security zone to protect border communities, monitor enemy movement, push Hezbollah fighters beyond missile range, and prevent infrastructure reconstruction near the border. Israel seeks to consolidate military gains and achieve peace and security through strength, using the security zone as leverage in negotiations with the Joseph Aoun government to facilitate Hezbollah’s disarmament, LAF reforms and implementation of state authority.[5]

However, the security zone risks prolonging a war of attrition, increasing logistical and financial burdens, overstretching IDF’s manpower, exposing troops to attacks, sustaining border tensions and obstructing rapprochement with Beirut.[6] The IDF’s battles on two fronts, that is, Iran and Lebanon, have increased reserve forces mobilisation from 40,000 to 110,000, costing around US$ 10 billion. The per-day cost of maintaining the security zone is estimated at US$ 33.3 million.[7]

Domestic support for wars against Iran and Lebanon remains firm as rocket attacks, border incidents, hostage crises and the memory of the 7 October 2023 attack have diminished tolerance for security failures. Netanyahu has struggled to convince the public that war goals are achieved due to the Iranian state’s survival and Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm, despite destroying 90 per cent of its rocket stockpiles.[8]

Between June and October 2026, Israel has pursued active containment through airstrikes, drone patrols, demolitions, clearance operations and delaying the implementation of pilot zones. Amid the US’ criticism of disproportionate force, Netanyahu, through continued military operations and territorial presence in Lebanon, seeks to demonstrate strategic autonomy to a domestic audience ahead of elections. Hezbollah’s deep roots within Lebanon’s Shiite community, comprising 32 per cent of the total population, make complete capitulation unlikely, prompting Israel’s recurring ‘mowing the grass’ strategy to degrade capabilities, reinforce........

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