US President Donald Trump’s speech early Thursday (India time) reiterated many of his earlier threats to Iran while offering the American public his justification for the war that few at home seem to support. But it was most striking for what it didn’t contain — any announcement of change in the US’s membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato). Just hours before the speech, Trump had spoken disparagingly of this security and strategic coalition with a large part of Europe. Some, therefore, had anticipated a big announcement in this regard before Trump spoke on Thursday.

That Trump holds Nato in contempt was never in doubt. It 2017, he called the alliance “obsolete”, claiming it had outlived its Cold War purpose. In 2024, he called member States not paying their promised financial contributions “delinquents” and threatened that Russia “can do whatever the hell it wants” with them. The spectre of the US dishonouring Nato collective defence under Article 5 sent shockwaves across Europe. “Unfairness” is Trump’s criticism of choice: “We give so much and get so little in return.” When asked by a British journalist whether he is reconsidering US participation in Nato, Trump was quick off the mark: “… it is beyond reconsideration. I was never swayed by Nato. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too.”

Compared to the earlier instances, there is much more menace in Trump’s latest threat to quit Nato. While it is possible that he won’t walk the talk after diplomatic lobbying by European leaders, the strategic context has shifted radically for........

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