Two developments in Asia have recently put Elon Musk’s technology ventures in an unusual spotlight. China has approved a string of brain-computer interface (BCI) devices as its firms seek to establish themselves in a field closely associated with Musk’s Neuralink. In Japan, telecom operator Rakuten Mobile is preparing to launch satellite-to-cell services with US-based AST SpaceMobile, providing an alternative to Musk’s Starlink in satellite-based mobile connectivity.

At first sight, brain chips and satellite communications have little in common. Nor are China and Japan pursuing the same strategy. China’s push into BCIs is about building indigenous capability and securing an early position in a technology whose commercial and technological architecture is still taking shape. Japan’s approach is different. Rakuten’s partnership with AST SpaceMobile offers diversification rather than technological self-reliance. Despite these differences, both developments show how competition over frontier technologies is becoming increasingly intertwined with geopolitical rivalry, with national-security considerations shaping technological choices.

In China’s case, the approval of BCIs also points to the changing significance of first-mover advantage. Traditionally understood in commercial terms — intellectual property, market share, network effects, standards, and switching costs — its consequences increasingly extend into the geopolitical realm. Firms and countries that establish technological ecosystems early can also influence the patterns of dependence that subsequently develop around them. The Rakuten case reflects a different logic: diversifying the supplier base to reduce the risks associated with excessive dependence on a single provider. China seeks to build capabilities early and reduce the risk of........

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