WITH three weeks to go until polling day, attention is starting to turn to what will happen after Scots’ votes are counted. There is an outside chance that the SNP could win a majority of seats, as they did in 2011 under Alex Salmond’s leadership. However, most seat projections currently suggest the SNP is likely to fall short of a majority – as they did in 2007, and in both 2016 and 2021 under Nicola Sturgeon.

In this scenario, one or more other parties could have a significant influence over the Scottish Government post-election, either because they join a coalition, or because a minority SNP government relies on their support to get its legislation through parliament.

Of course, the Scottish Parliament’s electoral system is designed to avoid any single party dominating by forming a majority government. It was intended to enable devolved politics to be done differently from traditional Westminster politics, by promoting co-operation between parties. But the recent history of co-operation agreements and coalitions – both at Holyrood and at Westminster – is one of unhappy endings.

The spectacular collapse of the power-sharing Bute House Agreement between the SNP and Scottish Greens in April 2024, which ultimately cost Humza Yousaf his job as First Minister, will still loom large in MSPs’ minds. And the decision to form a coalition government with the Conservatives at Westminster in 2010 was disastrous for the Liberal Democrats, wiping out much of their support for years to come.

'I was misled': Oh dear,........

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