None, not even US analysers, expected that a “non-descript war” with a small country like Iran could change the global energy scenario, that America is keen on monopolising.

The US plans a conflict decades before as it had envisioned the 1969 Camp David accord with Egypt in a 1951 US congressional study. In 2026, its battle for supremacy is deeply hurt by Iranian strategies and devastation of the US assets in 13 Gulf countries.

Now the OPEC seems to be in crisis, if not collapsing. The United Arab Emirates has decided to leave from May 1 and the American dollar-sale accord with Saudi Arabia ended in 2024. The Saudis have shown inclination for trading in the Chinese Yuan and had expressed its desire to be part of BRICS, though stalled for now. India is the BRICS chairman for the current year.

It means the US could lose in trillions of dollars of transactions and if its NATO allies reach a peace deal with Russia, not unexpected, the global power scenario may shift faster than imagined.

For India, the UAEs’ decision to leave OPEC is not just a Gulf political story—it is about fuel prices, inflation, the rupee, and economic stability. As also having higher petroleum reserves.

India imports nearly 85 percent of its crude oil needs. India purchased 245.3 million tonnes (MT) of crude in 2025-26 Finat 243.2 MT in 2024-25. Any rise in global oil prices directly raises petrol, diesel, transport costs, fertiliser prices, and food inflation. With Brent crude already crossing $110 per barrel due to the US-Israel war on Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE’s exit from OPEC adds another layer of uncertainty.

At first glance, more oil from the........

© Greater Kashmir