Opinion

Trump pushed Iran to the brink — but did we win anything that lasts?

At the end of this conflict, Iran has been weakened but not broken. Its ambitions have been slowed but not stopped

By Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis, (ret.) Fox News

Published April 16, 2026 7:00am EDT

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After 21 hours of talks in Islamabad last week, Iran walked away without a deal. Trump announced a naval blockade, then said Iran wants peace "very badly" and has "called." Both things are probably true — and together they define the problem.

Wars do not end when the shooting stops. They end when the political objective is secured. That is the standard Carl von Clausewitz set, and it is the standard by which the current conflict with Iran must now be judged. By that measure, as this phase of the war draws to a close, the answer is deeply unsatisfying.

The Likely Ending — And What It Means

An American man I recently met who had lived inside Iran offered a blunt forecast. China will pressure Iran to accept U.S. terms because Beijing needs Iranian oil. Iran will agree not because it is defeated, but because it wants sanctions relief and breathing room. The regime in Tehran will survive — strong enough to keep ruling, repress its people and wait for a more favorable moment.

PAKISTANI GENERAL SAYS IRAN DIPLOMACY STILL 'ALIVE, DESPITE US BLOCKADE, FAILED TALKS

That is a cynical forecast. It is also a realistic one. In dealing with Iran, survival is victory.

The Islamabad talks confirmed it. Vance emerged after 21 hours to say Iran "chose not to accept our terms." Trump then said Iran wants a deal "very badly" and has already reached out. Both things can be true. Iran wants relief — on its own terms.

If the Regime Survives, It Wins

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S NEGOTIATING TEAM PRAISED BY NUCLEAR........

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