Who pays for AI’s $2.6 trillion build-out? Look to corporate budgets

Good morning. By 2030, the AI ecosystem will need about $2.6 trillion in annual end-market spending to support data centers, chips, model development, and investor returns, according to a BCG Institute analysis.

Enterprises would account for $1.8 trillion of that total, followed by consumers at $366 billion, hyperscalers’ internal use at $204 billion, and emerging technologies such as physical AI at $200 billion. The estimates represent global spending, excluding China, and reflect infrastructure costs concentrated mainly in the U.S., where most new capacity is being built.

The $1.8 trillion is a measure of what the AI ecosystem would need from enterprises, rather than a forecast of actual spending.

In one illustrative scenario, BCG estimates that companies could contribute that amount by reallocating $857 billion from existing technology budgets and adding $937 billion in new spending. That would put enterprise tech budgets roughly 13% above International Data Corporation’s IT spending forecast, with AI’s share of those budgets rising from 5% today to 25% in 2030.

The scenario underscores how much the AI industry’s growth depends on corporate spending. For CFOs seeking additional AI investment, that means presenting boards with evidence of productivity gains, cost reductions, new revenue or competitive advantage, said Clark O’Niell, BCG’s global lead for AI, infrastructure and cyber. Some strategic benefits, however, may be difficult to capture in traditional ROI calculations.

“The question isn’t just whether AI delivers an immediate financial return,” he said. “It’s also what the cost of falling behind could........

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