In midterm years, October is usually the best month for stocks, with gains 73.7% of the time

If you’re a believer in stock market patterns, good news: History shows that in midterm election years, October is the best month of the year for stock performance, followed closely by November.

Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick points to the seasonal pattern. In a chart posted on X on Sept. 20, Detrick showed that, since 1950, October has been the best-performing month of the year in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time.

November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain, with positive returns 78.9% of the time. “Almost there,” he wrote, a nod to the fact that markets are just exiting what his data shows is the weakest month of the cycle: September, which has averaged a 0.8% decline.

The pattern also lines up with research from some of Wall Street’s biggest firms.

What UBS’s research shows

A recent report from UBS Global Research examined........

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