OPEC to resume oil output increases as Iran conflict rages

OPEC agreed to resume oil production increases at a slightly accelerated pace as a conflict sparked by US-Israeli strikes on Iran threatened to bolster a rally in crude prices.

Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — which had paused a series of hikes during the first quarter — will add 206,000 barrels a day in April, according to a statement after their monthly video conference on Sunday.

The hike is just 1.5 times bigger than the 137,000-barrel increments made by the group in December. The conflict in the Middle East threatens to disrupt global oil flows, yet several OPEC producers have limited capacity to increase, while one delegate said it was too early to assess the market impact. Key Gulf members could also face the risk of export constraints if there are prolonged disruptions in the critical Strait of Hormuz.

“This move is unlikely to calm markets — it’s a signal, not a solution,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at consultant Rystad Energy AS who formerly worked at the OPEC secretariat. “You can announce higher production, but if tankers face constraints in Hormuz, the physical market remains tight.”

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