AMRO holds Asia’s 2026 growth forecast steady at 4%, but said it would have been higher if not for the Iran war

Asia had a strong 2025, despite the doom and gloom surrounding Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. The ASEAN 3 region—which consists of Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and South Korea—defied protectionist headwinds to grow 4.3% last year, beating initial projections from the ASEAN 3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released right after the tariff shock.

Now the Iran war poses a new threat to Asia. The closed Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global supply chains and choked energy supplies, particularly for Asia, which buys more than 80% of the oil and gas that passes through the narrow waterway.

“The ASEAN 3 region entered 2026 from a position of strength, but the Middle East conflict has shifted the balance of risks to the downside,” Dong He, AMRO’s chief economist, said during an April 6 press conference in Singapore.

AMRO projected regional growth of 4% for both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from the........

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