Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

After small military gains last year, Russia is now not only spinning its wheels in Ukraine but is actually worse off than before, pummeled by a combination of battlefield losses and economic hardship.

As it struggles on the battlefield, some experts warn that Russia may seek to regain the initiative by leaning into some of its most provocative tactics, such as sabotage in Europe and drone incursions into NATO territory.

After small military gains last year, Russia is now not only spinning its wheels in Ukraine but is actually worse off than before, pummeled by a combination of battlefield losses and economic hardship.

As it struggles on the battlefield, some experts warn that Russia may seek to regain the initiative by leaning into some of its most provocative tactics, such as sabotage in Europe and drone incursions into NATO territory.

On the front line, Ukraine is killing more Russians than Moscow can recruit. In May, Ukraine’s defense ministry counted 35,200 dead or seriously wounded Russians for the month of April based on battlefield video. That’s about as many as Russia recruits in a given month under a costly recruitment program that cannot be easily expanded without tough political choices. In recent months, Ukraine has also begun choking off Russian logistics through the use of new, intermediate-range explosive drones that prowl deep behind Russian lines.

Russia’s economy and society are also showing signs of stress. Weighed down by military spending, Ukrainian strikes on energy, and the diversion of the labor force into the military or defense industry, Russia’s economy is stagnating, raising the possibility of further centralization of the economy. An attempt to more tightly control the internet, meanwhile, has left many Russians angrier than they have been in........

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