The ongoing standoff between the United States and Iran is hurting most of the global economy. But not Russia. Data suggests that Moscow has already made billions of dollars of additional revenue from oil sales because of higher crude prices, as well as the fact that the United States temporarily rescinded sanctions on Russia to rein in global costs. But beyond the immediate windfall, how will the conflict in the Middle East aid Russian President Vladimir Putin, including in his own war on Ukraine?

On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Gabuev previously ran the Carnegie Moscow Center, which was shut down by the Kremlin in 2022. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page. What follows here is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.

The ongoing standoff between the United States and Iran is hurting most of the global economy. But not Russia. Data suggests that Moscow has already made billions of dollars of additional revenue from oil sales because of higher crude prices, as well as the fact that the United States temporarily rescinded sanctions on Russia to rein in global costs. But beyond the immediate windfall, how will the conflict in the Middle East aid Russian President Vladimir Putin, including in his own war on Ukraine?

On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Gabuev previously ran the Carnegie Moscow Center, which was shut down by the Kremlin in 2022. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page. What follows here is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.

Ravi Agrawal: I want to start with a very narrow focus: oil revenue. What’s the math on how much additional money Russia is making from the heightened price of crude right now?

Alexander Gabuev: My colleague, Sergey Vakulenko, who is one of the best in business, calculates that every $10 increase per barrel gives “Russia Inc.”—the state and companies together—roughly $100 million a month. The intake increases as the oil price grows and stays elevated. The Russian authorities declared that for the month of April—the first month where these elevated prices are really reflected—Russia earned $9 billion for its oil sales. That’s double the oil revenues that Russia had before the invasion.

RA: Fascinating. So that’s obviously the oil picture, but, more broadly, is it fair to say that Russia overall is benefiting from the conflict in Iran?

AG: There are three positive elements for Russia and one negative that is a silver lining for Ukraine. We discussed oil prices, and that’s the most important boost. It’s a big shot of adrenaline in the arm for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economy and his war machine. Add to that the fertilizers, which are important; aluminum; and many other commodities that are affected by the war (and that your readers definitely know about, because Foreign Policy does a lot of coverage on these issues).

Second is the drawdown of Patriot interceptor missiles. By calculations from the first week of the war, the United States and its partners in the Gulf have used more Patriot interceptors than Ukraine has received from the United States and its allies since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The problem is that Patriot interceptors are the only efficient antidote against Russian ballistic missiles. Ukrainians know what to do about cruise missiles and drones. A shortage of........

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