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On paper, Indonesia’s economic growth rate should be the envy of any world leader. With 290 million people; around 70 percent of them of working age; a median age of about 30; and a large, increasingly tech-savvy consumer market, Indonesia has many reasons to be the poster child of the emerging world. It is a G-20 economy with abundant natural resources—from palm oil and nickel to coal and gas—and has maintained growth of around 5 percent since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet as President Prabowo Subianto approaches the second anniversary of his inauguration, his popularity is falling as more Indonesians say they aren’t feeling the benefits of that growth. The middle class is shrinking, and for millions of Indonesians, the promise of continued economic progress is colliding with stagnant wages, precarious employment, and rising living costs.

On paper, Indonesia’s economic growth rate should be the envy of any world leader. With 290 million people; around 70 percent of them of working age; a median age of about 30; and a large, increasingly tech-savvy consumer market, Indonesia has many reasons to be the poster child of the emerging world. It is a G-20 economy with abundant natural resources—from palm oil and nickel to coal and gas—and has maintained growth of around 5 percent since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet as President Prabowo Subianto approaches the second anniversary of his inauguration, his popularity is falling as more Indonesians say they aren’t feeling the benefits of that growth. The middle class is shrinking, and for millions of Indonesians, the promise of continued economic progress is colliding with stagnant wages, precarious employment, and rising living costs.

Already, there are growing signs that frustration with the economy is becoming a political problem. A July survey found that Prabowo’s approval rating had fallen to 51.1 percent, from 81.2 percent in November 2025—well into the danger zone in a country where presidents rarely dip below 60 percent.

Nearly half of respondents described the economy as bad or very bad, while just under 16 percent said it was doing well. Only a third were satisfied with the government’s flagship free meals welfare program, citing concerns about its cost and food-poisoning cases. The warning signs come a year after Indonesia was rocked by major protests, when anger over economic pressures, political privileges, and police conduct spilled onto the streets.

This is the paradox of “Prabowonomics”: growth that would once have been considered healthy alongside weakening public confidence and a fading political honeymoon.

Indonesia’s 5 percent growth figure occludes as much as it reveals. The currency has hit record lows this year, falling roughly 6 percent, and the stock market has been among the world’s worst performers—concerns about transparency and investor access have prompted index provider MSCI to warn that Indonesia could be downgraded from an emerging to a frontier market. Moody’s has changed the country’s sovereign outlook to negative, citing fiscal management concerns. Investors have also been unsettled by the departure of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and the sudden resignation of Bank Indonesia Gov. Perry Warjiyo, following earlier questions about central-bank independence after Prabowo’s nephew was appointed as a deputy governor in February.

Despite Prabowo’s........

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