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Mojtaba Khamenei doesn’t play golf and is not known to bench-press three plates. But when it comes to chest-thumping, U.S. President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have got nothing on Iran’s supreme leader. Barely had the American and Israeli bombs stopped falling on Iran when Khamenei, elevated after his father was killed in virtually the first strike of the war, declared that the Islamic Republic had achieved “final victory.” Chiming in, his Supreme National Security Council announced that “nearly all the objectives of the war” had been met. State media dutifully trumpeted the country’s new power.

In the West, too, a section of the commentariat is settling into a narrative that Iran has emerged from this war in a stronger position than it had been in just six weeks before. In this telling, the Iranians, having absorbed the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign, delivered a decisive counterstrike by closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting shock to the world economy forced the United States to seek a parley in Pakistan.

Mojtaba Khamenei doesn’t play golf and is not known to bench-press three plates. But when it comes to chest-thumping, U.S. President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have got nothing on Iran’s supreme leader. Barely had the American and Israeli bombs stopped falling on Iran when Khamenei, elevated after his father was killed in virtually the first strike of the war, declared that the Islamic Republic had achieved “final victory.” Chiming in, his Supreme National Security Council announced that “nearly all the objectives of the war” had been met. State media dutifully trumpeted the country’s new power.

In the West, too, a section of the commentariat is settling into a narrative that Iran has emerged from this war in a stronger position than it had been in just six weeks before. In this telling, the Iranians, having absorbed the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign, delivered a decisive counterstrike by closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the resulting shock to the world economy forced the United States to seek a parley in Pakistan.

This analysis mistakes endurance for strength. It is true, as many (myself included) have argued, that in this particular conflict America loses by not winning, while Iran wins merely by surviving. But there is no gainsaying the fact that the Islamic Republic has been badly battered by the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign. Recovery will require not only time and money, but also an extended period of political and geopolitical stability. These are things over which Tehran has, at best, limited control.

As for the Hormuz gambit, as effective as it has been during the current war, it is far from certain........

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