In nearly six weeks of war with Iran, the United States’ and Israel’s military performance has been unexpectedly effective. Between the start of the war on February 28 and the start of this week’s cease-fire, U.S. and Israeli airstrikes destroyed thousands of targets in Iran. Although Iranian retaliatory strikes caused damage, American and Israeli air defenses worked well. Complete details about the targets the U.S. and Israeli militaries hit, the Iranian drones and missiles they intercepted, and the units they deployed are not yet public. But judging by the available information, it is likely that the two militaries’ methods and technology attained new levels of tactical effectiveness.

The performance should give pause to U.S. adversaries that have been watching the war in Iran unfold. Massive volleys of long-range drones and ballistic missiles are a preferred offensive tool of China, North Korea, and Russia, used to pound military bases and headquarters, sink fleets, and level civilian infrastructure. If a U.S. adversary were to undertake a war of aggression in Asia or Europe, its plan would be to launch strikes to try to neutralize U.S. and allied military forces, likely inflicting high civilian losses in the process, and then use that cover to carry out its war objectives. The success of high-end Western missile defenses against Iranian strikes calls such a plan into question. Ballistic missiles and drones may not be the decisive offensive weapons that many countries thought them to be. They could still be effective in a campaign of attrition and coercion—but this would be a slow process, not a path to quick victory.

The implications are most consequential for a potential war with China. Until now, U.S. defense analysts expected that China could use long-range strikes to severely impair American air and naval operations in a conflict over Taiwan. The way the war in the Middle East has progressed suggests that this basic assumption must be reassessed. The United States may be able to carry out far more effective operations against China than analysts once thought—and this potential could give China good reason to refrain from military aggression for some time.

For years, the U.S. military predicted that a war with Iran could become quite costly. As of early 2026, Iran had a large arsenal of more than 2,500 ballistic missiles and several thousand one-way attack drones, including its own Shahed drone, that could reach the Gulf states, Israel, and U.S. bases in the Middle East. In a war, those missiles and drones were expected to cause widespread damage. General Frank McKenzie, who served as head of U.S. Central Command from 2019 to 2022, warned in his memoir that the volume of Iranian strikes “would overwhelm air and missile defenses and reach their targets,” resulting in “many thousands of casualties, both military and civilian.” U.S. air and naval bases near the Persian Gulf could be incapacitated, the Gulf states’ oil and energy infrastructure might be destroyed, and Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz with mines and antiship missiles launched from its own coast.

Iran managed to close the strait, but its missile campaign fell well short of expectations. The BBC reported that in the first five days of the war, Iran launched 550 ballistic missiles and 1,500 drones against targets in the Gulf and 128 ballistic missiles and 1,100 drones against Israel. Thanks to U.S. air defenses and those of U.S. allies, very few got through. On February 28 and March 1 alone, U.S. and Gulf militaries intercepted 400 Iranian missiles and 1,000 drones, according to The Wall Street Journal. Iran launched 262 ballistic missiles and 1,475 drones at the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the first ten days of the war; only two missiles and 90 drones hit the country. Of the more than 290 missiles and 500 drones that Iran had launched at Israel by March 15, none were reported to have hit any military target of significance. After March 15, a few missiles and drones infiltrated Israel’s air defenses and struck civilian areas; one hit the Old City in Jerusalem. As of April 3, at least 250 Israelis had been killed or injured, and air raid warnings have been frequent. The overall harm, however, was still relatively low.

Iran’s missiles and drones struck at least 17 U.S. military bases and installations across the Gulf, doing notable........

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