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Foreign Affairs |
Sometime in the next few weeks, U.S. federal government debt will reach $40 trillion. The United States now owes roughly as much as all the other...
The Perverse Incentives for Presidents to Use Military Force
The quest for machine superintelligence is not merely a gold rush, motivated by money. In the minds of many of its leaders, the arrival of a new form...
Fragile states, almost by definition, never have it easy. But for the roughly 60 poor countries that lack the capacity to perform basic...
How Beijing Turned its Food Insecurity Into Geopolitical Leverage
For China, Northeast Asia remains the weak spot in its attempt to secure its immediate borders. Tensions between North Korea and South Korea are...
In May, China’s Ministry of Commerce took an unprecedented step: it ordered Chinese firms to disregard U.S. sanctions against five domestic refiners...
In foreign policy, good ideas often emerge from bad decisions. Such was the case with the Powell Doctrine, a term typically associated with the...
In May, China’s Ministry of Commerce took an unprecedented step: it ordered Chinese firms to disregard U.S. sanctions against five domestic refiners...
Russia’s Coming Succession Crisis
The war with Iran is an epic disaster. The United States and Israel launched an unnecessary campaign that has violated international law, killed at...
The architects of the neoliberal economic order promised that it would usher in a new age of global wealth, economic security, and democracy. Yet over...
As the United States’ five-month-old war with Iran continues to evolve, Tehran’s ability to continue punishing the United States and its allies...
How to Avoid an AI Catastrophe
Analysts generally organize the options for a Chinese military move against Taiwan into three categories: an invasion to seize direct control of the...
How America Gets Stuck in Its Allies’ Fights
For years, U.S. officials have fretted about Chinese megaprojects in Latin America. Successive administrations have, for example, sounded the alarm...
Overcoming the Enrichment Dilemma in the Saudi Deal
Ambiguity—vague language, mixed messaging, frequent policy shifts—has been a hallmark of the United States’ approach to the war in Iran. From...
Putin Sees Little Need to Negotiate
Wars of Sound and Fury
When the People’s Republic of China was founded, in 1949, it was explicitly a multinational state. Although Han Chinese make up more than 90 percent...
Wars of Sound and Fury
The Case for a Strategic Investment Fund
In April 2025, Chinese coast guard personnel stepped onto Sandy Cay, an uninhabited sandbar in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, and...
The clean energy transition has entered a new phase. Ambitious net-zero emission pledges made over the past decade have fallen glaringly short of...
In April 2025, Chinese coast guard personnel stepped onto Sandy Cay, an uninhabited sandbar in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, and...
The Case for a Strategic Investment Fund
In late December 2025, China capped another year of intensifying pressure on Taiwan with a round of large-scale military exercises. Dubbed “Justice...
Ending the War Can Strengthen the Prospects for Democracy
On the night of January 17, 1991, television viewers around the world watched something they had never seen before. Against the backdrop of a black...
The war on Iran, launched in late February by the United States and Israel, is doing more than rattling oil markets. It is accelerating a...
And What Europe Should Understand About Handling Trump
By most accounts, China has the upper hand in its growing economic confrontation with the United States. In April 2025, after Washington levied heavy...
The Making and Unmaking of American Dominance
Since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office, no state has been too small to find itself in his crosshairs. In his inaugural address in...
Economic Decay and America’s Strategic Opening
The memorandum of understanding that the United States and Iran signed in June has fallen apart. The deal was meant to halt fighting, open the Strait...
Preparing for an AI Cyber Crisis
Since returning to office, U.S. President Donald Trump has set out on a warpath against American cities. His administration has dispatched thousands...
Beijing Wants Trade but Not Responsibility
On April 7, as the deadline approached for U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to the Iranian government to open the Strait of Hormuz or face...
The Department of Defense is in trouble. During U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, media attention has focused on military parades,...
Trump’s Demands Could Derail Progress on Allied Defense
In his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump has outlined grand diplomatic ambitions. He has promised to bring peace to Ukraine and Gaza, sought to...
Why a Trade War Can’t Be Avoided
Through much of the first quarter of the twenty-first century, as the United States’ popularity around the world has ebbed and flowed, the country...
Beijing’s Risky Bet Against the West
On the traffic-snarled streets of Hanoi, taxi drivers taking a break between rides watch Chinese microdramas—feature-length stories divided into...
A New Use for Russia’s Old Playbook in Ukraine
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