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Israel and the New Air Superiority

11 5
11.08.2025

For years, military theorists and political scientists have argued that airpower is overrated and, in some ways, outmoded. Some point to the proliferation of small, cheap unmanned drones as evidence that traditional air superiority—the ability to control the skies—has been rendered obsolete. According to this view, technological innovation has made “air denial”—merely restricting an adversary’s ability to operate freely in the air—a sufficient replacement.

Others cite a “smart bomb trap,” the idea that leaders have grown overconfident in the ability of precision airstrikes to coerce states into submission. These critics argue that airpower alone cannot achieve political objectives and in fact often leads to endless, pointless bombing campaigns. The political scientist Robert Pape, for example, asserted in 1996 that “no strategic bombing campaign has ever yielded decisive results.” Underneath these critiques is a clear message: airpower is too limited, too expensive, or too reliant on the promises of technological innovations to matter much.

Then, in June, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, an air campaign against Iran. Over the course of just 12 days, Israel’s air force flew around 1,500 combat sorties, conducted more than 600 aerial refuelings, and struck over 900 Iranian targets, including hardened nuclear facilities, missile batteries, and military command centers. The results were decisive: Iran’s nuclear program was significantly disrupted, key elements of its air defense network were shattered, and Tehran’s military leadership suffered serious blows. All the while, not a single manned Israeli aircraft was lost.

Although Israel did not fully eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, its air campaign delayed, degraded, and deterred Iran’s ambitions, and further transformed the Middle East’s political landscape. Rising Lion was a stunning demonstration of what a modern air........

© Foreign Affairs