Seizing opportunity amid the war in Iran, the Houthis have launched a major new bid for military dominance in and around Yemen. On Tuesday, the Iranian-aligned group unleashed a wave of drones and ballistic missiles strikes on Saudi Arabia, setting fire to oil facilities in the country’s south and injuring more than 70 people. Then on Thursday, after days of heavy fighting along key frontlines inside Yemen, the Houthis routed Saudi-backed government forces along the Red Sea coast and captured the strategic port of Mokha. And on Friday, the Yemeni government reported that the Houthis had seized Perim Island at the mouth of the Bab el Mandeb Strait, the narrow waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. The takeover marks a profound shift in the balance of power in Yemen, with potential consequences for the entire region.

Until this week, Mokha had been home to a vital part of the anti-Houthi coalition and served as a bulwark against the rebels’ advance. With this offensive, the Houthis have shattered a status quo along the coast, upended a truce that had largely held since 2022, and set the stage for further consolidation of their control of the north. But the victory is also Iran’s, since Houthi control of both Perim Island and Mokha, which lies less than 50 miles from the Bab el Mandeb, will allow the rebels to establish themselves as the power brokers of the strait and more easily harass shipping.

The timing of the Houthis’ escalation, which began with attacks on Saudi interests in July, is especially significant, given that the Red Sea has become a crucial alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for Saudi oil during the Iran war. Even as Houthi leaders frame their actions in local terms, their alignment with Tehran appears to have tightened. By attacking Saudi shipping and Saudi Arabia itself, they have effectively opened a second front in the Iran war, broadening that conflict and placing further pressure on global energy and financial markets. Iranian officials have said that reaching a deal with the United States will require ending the blockade of Yemen—a shorthand for Saudi Arabia’s lifting all transit restrictions on Houthi-held territories, including the capital, Sanaa, and ending support for the Yemeni government. In this evolving regional order, Iran and its partners are trying to establish a new status quo by controlling the Middle East’s most critical maritime checkpoints.

Options for addressing the Houthi challenge are moving from bad to worse. While the frontlines will likely continue to evolve, a few hard realities have been laid bare. A decisive military solution to Houthi threats is not credible. For all their public bluster, Yemeni government forces remain internally fragmented. During this week’s offensive, their backer Saudi Arabia also failed to provide close air support and other necessary assistance, suggesting continued poor coordination between the anti-Houthi coalition and Riyadh. Moreover, the Houthis’ gains also undermine the prospects for a negotiated settlement. The militant group is now likely to be even more maximalist in its demands and in its ambitions to assert control across the Red Sea.

There are no easy solutions. For now, the priority for Saudi Arabia, the United States, and their Yemeni allies must be protecting other key frontlines from Houthi advances and hindering Houthi efforts to consolidate control over northern Yemen and the Bab el Mandeb. But beyond that, the anti-Houthi coalition must finally address the fissures that continue to tear it apart and agree on a credible political vision for resolving the Yemeni conflict. If it does not, there is a real risk of greater upheaval on the government side and expansion of the Houthi threat across the region.

FROM THE STRAIT TO THE SEA

For nearly five months after the Iran war began in late February, the Houthis mostly stayed on the sidelines. That relative calm gave way in mid-July, when the Iranians flew a Houthi delegation from Tehran to Sanaa, challenging the Yemeni government and Saudi-led coalition’s control of Yemen’s airspace. To prevent the aircraft from landing, Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government bombed the Sanaa airport’s sole runway. Although the plane landed at the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah instead, the Saudi action gave the Houthis a pretext for abandoning the 2022........

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