For the second time in eight months, the United States and Israel have conducted military strikes in Iran. Last June, Washington’s focus was almost entirely on Iran’s nuclear program, with the U.S. strikes hitting three of the Islamic Republic’s key nuclear facilities, and Israel hitting a wider set of strategic targets, including military commanders, missile launch and production facilities, and nuclear infrastructure.

This time, the United States and Israel conducted a sweeping joint military operation against Iranian leadership and capabilities, and U.S. President Donald Trump has called for “regime change” after Iranian protesters were viciously repressed by their own government early this year. On Saturday, February 28, the U.S. and Israeli militaries struck hundreds of sites across the country and targeted several top leaders, including Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, who was killed along with members of his family and key advisors.

But the likely next phases of the conflict are significantly more complicated than those Washington faced in the wake of last year’s strikes. “Operation Midnight Hammer,” as that attack was named, was bold but limited, with Iran’s response—striking an evacuated U.S. base in Qatar—telegraphed in advance. The objectives were clear, the sites familiar to military planners, and the two sides avoided an escalatory cycle.

By contrast, the recent attack, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury,” has opened a Pandora’s Box, with no clear objective within reach nor any clear path to deescalation. Before the strikes, Iran had warned that it would retaliate, which now backs it into a corner and raises the overall risk level. Even in its weakened state, the regime still has formidable lethal power. Since last June, it has moved to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal at what an Israeli military assessment described as “a rapid pace.” It can fire hundreds of missiles at U.S. bases, interests, and allies, and it can activate the remnants of its regional network of partners and proxies.

“When we are finished, take over your government,” Trump exhorted the Iranian people in announcing the strikes. “It will be yours to take.” But the path to a popular uprising that successfully dislodges the regime is far from clear. Bombs can degrade infrastructure. They can weaken capabilities and eliminate leaders. But they do not manufacture organized political alternatives. The Iranian public is unarmed, fragmented, and facing one of the most securitized states in the region. Even a weakened regime retains........

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