In July, Bloomberg reported that for the first time in roughly two decades of Pew Research Center global polling, the world now views China more favorably than the United States. The sentiment was not universal, but in 25 of the 36 countries surveyed this year, the percentage of respondents who gave favorable marks to China exceeded that for the United States, including several close U.S. allies. Some analysts have taken these findings as confirmation that the golden era of American soft power is over and China is ascendant. According to them, Trump’s policies on tariffs, aid, and allies have eroded the United States’ standing, opening the door for people across the world to switch their allegiance to China.

But this interpretation, convenient as it may be, deserves more scrutiny. A closer examination of the data reveals that although global opinion of the United States has indeed plummeted and opinion of China has risen since 2022, most of the world still prefers the United States as an economic partner—including most of the countries that now view China in a more positive light. This is a critical distinction, since economic partnerships and interests tend to drive national policies. Indeed, it signals something more nuanced is happening than simply the end of American hegemony and an imminent age of Chinese global supremacy.

The world’s increasingly pro-Chinese attitude is not meaningless. That more and more people think better of Beijing than of Washington could eventually prove important as Beijing seeks to build up its soft power. For now, however, what the numbers actually show is a world adjusting to the new reality of great-power competition, feeling forced to choose one side without the luxury of liking it.

Favorability is, in essence, a feeling. When people are asked to say how favorably they view something, they are really being asked whether and how much they like it—and little else. Pew’s favorability question also asked only whether respondents hold a positive or a negative impression of China and the United States, not whether they liked one more than the other. Still, Beijing clearly came out on top in these questions. Favorable views of the United States fell........

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